Back in September 2020, when the world was under lockdowns, inflation wasn't even considered "transitory" yet, and most of Wall Street was stocking up on hand sanitizers to make bold predictions — BCA Research did precisely that.
The firm called for the market to shrug off all the near-term and long-term concerns and more than double within the decade. They set a target for SPX to reach 7,000 by 2028. The logic was simple. A "structurally constructive" U.S. equity view, betting on peak-cycle earnings of $310 and a P/E of 23. They advised a long-short trade. Long 14 laggard "back-to-work" stocks and short 14 Covid-era high-flyers.
At the time, that sounded borderline reckless. The global economy had stuttered, oil prices had plummeted, and everyone was debating what the eventual reopening would look like. Five years later, here we are — the S&P 500 is less than 2% away from 7,000. So, what's BCA Research saying now?
The Current Outlook
The tone has shifted. Their latest outlook isn't about risk appetite but managing fragility. The firm sees weakening U.S. growth momentum, falling oil prices, and a Federal Reserve that's easing into softness. The market narrative has flipped from "how high can rates go" to "how many cuts will it take to keep things steady."
BCA's macro team says the data looks wobbly. Fewer soft indicators are improving, hard data is losing traction, and the Fed's next meetings are likely to keep easing.
In that environment, they're not chasing risk — neutral equities, overweight government bonds, or underweight credit. It's a defensive stance, but not one of doom and gloom. The goal? Protect capital until growth stops eroding.
Gold Is Solid, AI Needs Time, Rate Cuts Do Less Than Expected
BCA Research is staying constructive on gold. Strategist Chester Ntonifor argues the recent correction isn't structural — just a pullback after a big run. Central banks are still buying, real yields aren't a headwind, and the gold/S&P ratio suggests portfolio hedging isn't overcrowded yet. Gold has room to shine more.
On the tech side, Miroslav Aradski from BCA's Global Investment Strategy team says the AI story is real — but not ready to pay real dividends.
Companies are struggling to turn AI investment into profit. High costs, competitive intensity, and scaling friction mean this isn't the next internet boom… at least not yet. "The experimentation phase is over," Aradski notes. "Now comes the slow grind of operational reality."
And for all those betting that rate cuts will save the cycle, Ryan Swift, BCA's bond strategist, has a reality check.
"The labor market's slowdown is a bigger force than a few rate cuts," he says, clarifying that interest rate impact outside of real estate is not that big.
Cuts may come — maybe four next year — but they're unlikely to be magic bullets. The real easing, he adds, might not even kick in until 2026.
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