Wall Street's favorite benchmark just flirted with a technical milestone that has only been hit three times in modern history, a stretch that speaks volumes about the strength of this bull market—but also draws comparisons to periods when markets cooled off fast.
The S&P 500, as tracked by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO), is poised to log its sixth straight month of gains, with October on track for a 2.5% increase. That would mark the longest winning streak since August 2021.
Yet, it’s not the monthly streak that's catching traders' eyes—it’s a subtler signal flashing from the charts.
As of Oct. 30, the S&P 500 has spent 128 consecutive trading sessions above its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator of short-term momentum.
It’s the fourth-longest such streak in over five decades.
Chart: S&P 500 Has Spent 128 Days Above Its 50-Day Moving Average
S&P 500 Had Mixed Forward Returns After This Rare Technical Occurrence Happened
The last time this happened was March 2011, when the streak stretched to 130 days—but it didn't go much further. On March 10, 2011, the index dropped 1.9% and closed below the 50-day threshold, snapping the run.
In the month after, the index managed a 1.78% gain, yet by the six-month mark, it was down 8.5%. The 12-month return, while positive at 3.24%, lagged the broader market’s annual returns.
Rewind to January 2007, the second most recent occurrence. The index gained 1.92% over the next month, continued higher for six months, up 6.61%, but then began to unravel as the subprime mortgage crisis started to infect the broader financial system. By the 12-month mark, the index was down 6.55%.
Then there's July 1995, which tells a different story. That year, the U.S. economy was in a “Goldilocks” phase: low inflation, steady growth, and the beginning of a technological revolution that would supercharge corporate earnings for years to come. The Federal Reserve had paused its rate-hiking cycle, creating the perfect backdrop for a risk-on environment.
After notching 128 days above the 50-day moving average on July 10, 1995, the S&P 500 barely moved over the next month but then climbed steadily: up by 3.65% in three months, by 7.41% in six months, and by a whopping 17.74% a year later.
It was the dawn of a historic bull market that would dominate the second half of the 1990s.
Table: S&P 500 Returns After Breaking 128 Days Above 50-Day Moving Average
Can Seasonality Save The Rally? History Suggests It Might
While the technical setup of the S&P 500 might be flashing yellow lights for short-term momentum, the calendar could be working in the bulls’ favor, according to analyst Ryan Detrick.
In 2025, the S&P 500 is up 15.5% year to date through October, placing it firmly within a rare group of strong-performing years.
As Detrick’s analysis below shows, since 1950, there have been only 22 years in which the index gained more than 15% through the end of October, and the final two months of the year delivered gains in 95.2% of those cases.
In 22 such occurrences, the S&P 500 gained an average of 2.7% in November, while December added another 2.0%.
The lone exception came in 1986, when the S&P 500, despite gaining over 15% by the end of October, slipped 0.7% over the final two months—the only instance since 1950 where a strong performance through October didn't translate into a strong finish.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
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