Gold's historic rally may be far from over. Bank of America hinted the precious metal could climb to $3,500 per ounce, driven by investment demand and central bank buying amid growing global economic and policy uncertainties.
In a note shared Wednesday, Bank of America commodity strategist Francisco Blanch said gold's rally has been largely fueled by "exceptional purchases by the official sector" as central banks seek to hedge against geopolitical and fiscal risks.
Spot gold – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) – is currently trading at $2,920 per ounce as of Feb. 13, 2025, up 11.3% year-to-date.
Will Gold Reach $3,500?
For gold to average $3,000 per ounce in 2025, investment demand needs to rise by just 1%, according to Bank of America's analysis.
Yet, reaching $3,500 would require a more significant 10% jump. While this might seem like a steep climb, Blanch indicated that it's "not impossible."
One major factor supporting this outlook is China's recent decision to allow insurance funds to invest in gold through various financial instruments.
China's Financial Supervision Administration has launched a pilot program that could unlock as much as $25 billion to $28 billion in gold purchases, equivalent to about 300 metric tons, or 6.5% of the annual global market.
Chinese insurers, managing an estimated $4.4 trillion in total assets, are now permitted to allocate up to 1% of their portfolios to gold. With declining returns on traditional investments and a growing appetite for safe-haven assets, Bank of America's analysts believe insurers will likely use their full allowance within a year.
Central Banks And Geopolitical Uncertainty
Global central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold, largely as a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability.
“We agree that the gold market is pricing in increased policy tensions,” Blanch said.
The World Gold Council reported that total gold demand hit a record 4,974 metric tons in 2024, with central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 metric tons for the third consecutive year.
Gold investment also surged in 2024, with demand rising 25%—the highest annual growth rate since 2020. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had seen heavy outflows in previous years, stabilized as investors turned to the metal amid market uncertainties.
"Total gold demand (including OTC investment) rose 1% year-over-year in Q4 to reach a new quarterly high and contribute to a record annual total," the World Gold Council said in its latest report.
The Impact Of US Policy: Could The Dollar Actually Weaken?
One of the key uncertainties supporting gold demand is the direction of U.S. economic policy under President Donald Trump.
Trump administration is considering fresh tariffs on key trading partners, a move that could initially strengthen the U.S. dollar, according to Bank of America. Yet, policymakers are also discussing efforts to weaken the currency in an attempt to rebalance the elevated U.S. trade deficit, which could eventually support gold prices.
Bank of America's note highlighted that "the call for a weaker USD is also discussed along with a push to rebalance external accounts." A weaker dollar typically makes gold more attractive to international investors.
If investment demand continues its upward trajectory, gold's run may be far from over. Whether it reaches $3,500 will depend on just how much more investors and institutions flock to the metal in the months ahead.
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