Is Dogecoin a Good Buy?

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Contributor, Benzinga
Updated: August 24, 2022

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Most cryptocurrencies strongly depend on hype and spreading adoption as far and as wide as possible. Some would completely collapse without it because they simply don’t have any real uses. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a generally useless crypto driven by hype. Even though you can’t do much with DOGE, it became one of the most popular cryptos in the world and rocketed over 1,100% in less than 1 month last year. No matter what you think of the token, this is clearly an impressive feat. Influencers would be insane to give a $10, $5 or even $1 Dogecoin price prediction a few years ago. Now they are mostly just far too optimistic.

Few investors, if any, buy Dogecoin because they want to use it. They buy it because they believe that other people will buy it in the future, driving the price up. Dogecoin isn’t alone in this category and you could make the same argument for Bitcoin, although it doesn’t apply as well. Bitcoin has already proven itself as a store of value, somewhat similar to gold. Doge could potentially become a store of value, but it’s significantly more volatile than Bitcoin.

What is Dogecoin?

Dogecoin is quite similar to Bitcoin in terms of the actual code behind the blockchain. One of the most common ways of starting a crypto is by altering an existing 1 through a “fork”. A hard fork is simply when 1 blockchain splits into 2 — the original and a new chain operating under different rules. This differs from a simple or soft “fork” which is a copy-and-paste of a blockchain’s code with a few changes. Dogecoin is a fork of a much less popular crypto called Luckycoin, which was a fork of Litecoin which, in turn, was a fork of Bitcoin. 

One of the most important similarities between Doge and Bitcoin is how each network verifies and processes transactions. Both use the consensus mechanism called proof of work, where validators solve complex mathematical puzzles to add a block of transactions to the blockchain. 

Likely the most important difference between the technical fundamentals of Bitcoin and Dogecoin is the maximum supply of tokens. Validators, or miners, on a proof-of-work blockchain are awarded a few tokens for every block they add to the chain. 

Bitcoin has a hardwired max supply of 21 million Bitcoin. When the 21 millionth Bitcoin is mined (in around 2140), miners will no longer earn a block reward, only tips from transactions. Dogecoin has an infinite supply, like many fiat currencies, so miners will always get Dogecoin block rewards. This means it will always be inflationary unless that is changed in the future. Scarcity is a major driver of Bitcoin’s success and Doge is the furthest thing from scarce. At least Doge can be used as payment with a few businesses, like Bitcoin. However, the utility doesn’t matter much in Dogecoin’s case. Likely the greatest asset it has is influencers posting Dogecoin price predictions.

Dogecoin Market Position

Even though Dogecoin’s market position has significantly diminished since it reached its all-time high in May, it is still one of the largest cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, It has a market capitalization of about $9 billion. Dogecoin is the 10th largest crypto in terms of market cap. Dogecoin’s largest competitors in the crypto market are other meme coins like Shiba Inu and Floki Inu, but it currently towers over all of them. Dogecoin and some of the other top meme coins move at the same time so if you see Doge or Shiba Inu running, look for a move on the other crypto.

Market cap is often a useful metric when estimating relative values of assets like Dogecoin. Assets with smaller market caps generally experience greater price swings with less liquidity than larger assets. We can use this metric to get an idea as to if a price estimate is in the realm of possibility. There are far too many influencers who love to give absurd Dogecoin price predictions. For example, many supporters like to throw around a $10 Dogecoin price prediction. Dogecoin reaching $10 in any reasonable amount of time is patently ridiculous because if it did reach $10, its market cap would be almost twice Bitcoin’s. Dogecoin may still be a good buy but expecting it to reach $10 anytime soon is silly.

How Does Dogecoin Fit in the Bigger Picture? 

As mentioned, Dogecoin is a meme coin. It is based on the structure of an existing project, Luckycoin, which itself is a code base fork of Litecoin. Dogecoin has no formal white paper, although several enthusiasts have written blog and forum posts as stand-in explainer documents. 

WalletInvestor’s Dogecoin Price Prediction

It seems that most crypto analysts believe that Dogecoin will perform relatively well in the next 5 years. WalletInvestor, a useful website with price forecasts for cryptocurrencies, stocks, forex and even real estate, is quite bullish on Dogecoin. The site uses a machine-learning algorithm that studies price charts to try to predict an asset’s price in the future. The platform estimates that Dogecoin might reach $0.142 by July 2023. It’s impossible to perfectly predict the price of an asset, especially for a Dogecoin price prediction, so far into the future. However, tools like WalletInvestor’s machine-learning forecast algorithm can help provide rough estimates. 

Sean William’s Dogecoin Price Prediction

Sean William, a veteran writer for the Motley Fool with an Economics degree from UC San Diego, is not as confident as WalletInvestor on Dogecoin. He believes that Dogecoin is in a massive bubble that will pop eventually. He notes that Dogecoin’s functionality is miserable compared to many of its competitors in the crypto market. It seems like so far, William has been right and Doge has fallen significantly from its all-time high.

Some Dogecoin supporters like to promote the token’s use for payments. Indeed there are a few thousand businesses accepting it, but most of those are relatively small and obscure. Also, the network would be unable to scale to the size of large payment services like Visa (NYSE: V) or Mastercard (NYSE: MA). William is right that Dogecoin has no innovative use cases and that may cause the bubble to pop. William certainly thinks Dogecoin is not a good buy but he may be wrong. Despite its lack of uses, if the hype behind it doesn’t die, Dogecoin could survive or even thrive.

How Long Will the Crypto Bear Market Last?

Bear markets refer to a period of time where supply is greater than demand, trading volume is low, prices are falling and investor confidence is extremely low. However, in contrast to traditional markets, cryptocurrencies are small and therefore more volatile. As a result, it is common to see prolonged and more volatile bear markets, where 80% price drops are not out of the ordinary. 

Having lasted for seven months and counting, the current bear market can be attributed to a variety of factors. Experts are pointing to concerns over tighter monetary policy, the war in Ukraine and rising inflation rates as the primary catalysts for slumping prices for risk-on assets such as cryptocurrency. Moreover, the cryptomarket has been increasingly following the stock market in recent months, which makes it even more intertwined with macroeconomic factors. Nonetheless, based on previous bear markets such as the 2012 or 2018 bear market, many crypto natives are expecting the current bear market to last until late 2022 or early 2023. 

Changelly, a reputable cryptocurrency exchange, predicts that in 2023, the minimum price of Dogecoin will be around $0.15, and the maximum price will be around $0.17. This Dogecoin price prediction is quite similar to Wallet Investor’s forecast for the token. If they are right, Dogecoin could be a good buy right now.

What to do During a Bear Market

While crypto bear markets may be boring at times for many investors, it is the optimal time to research and capitalize on low prices. Most of the best traders are made during bear markets. Disciplined investors are likely to do the following during the bear market:

  • Dollar cost average (DCA): Dollar cost averaging occurs when investors buy assets in increments over a period of time. The strategy helps reduce the effect of price changes from volatility by averaging out the price. However, prudent investors will wait until a consolidation period starts before DCAing. 
  • Research: Investing your time in learning about cryptocurrency projects, exploring investment strategies or gaining financial skills are smart moves to make during a bear market. By doing this, you will not only become a more knowledgeable investor but also be more prepared to capitalize on the opportunities that arise in the next bull market.
  • Diversify: It is best practice to diversify your crypto portfolio during a bear market. In this way, you will be less likely to experience a major disaster. Crypto investors can also diversify their crypto portfolios by looking to invest in projects with a strong track record or promising new projects. 

Will Dogecoin Ever Reach All-Time Highs? 

When Dogecoin reached its all-time high of roughly $0.70 in mid 2021, the project’s market capitalization reached an apex north of $70 billion, making Dogecoin the fourth-most valued coin at the time. To reach this $70 billion market cap sometime in the future, Dogecoin’s price would need to reach a value of $0.53.

In light of the current macroeconomic backdrop, it is unlikely that DOGE will reach all-time highs any time soon. Investor confidence continues to dwindle as negative news such as the collapse of the Terra ecosystem and the suspension of withdrawals/transfers with popular crypto lenders like Celsius continue to surface. Moreover, it appears that other risk-on assets such as stocks are also underperforming, which suggests the current climate is being driven by factors far bigger than the cryptocurrency industry.

Despite the relatively bleak short-term horizon, it is possible that Dogecoin could approach all-time highs before Bitcoin’s next halving event because most investors believe the value of Bitcoin will increase and could achieve greater growth between now and its fourth halving in 2024. Nonetheless, given that Bitcoin still drives the price action of the cryptomarket, appreciation in the price of Bitcoin will likely result in Dogecoin appreciating if the community stays active. 

Moreover, it is important to note that much of Dogecoin’s fame is attributed to the support of Elon Musk. Elon is a major proponent of Dogecoin, and his tweets surrounding the project have often had a significant impact on the short-term price of DOGE. However, recently, a lawsuit was filed against Elon Musk based on the claim that Elon was involved in a pyramid scheme with Dogecoin. Musk's continued support is likely extremely important for Dogecoin. If he contines to talk about it a lot or supports it in other ways, it will likely see significant success. If he leaves it behind, Dogecoin may slowly fall as it exits the public consiousness.

Is Dogecoin (DOGE) a Good Long-Term Investment?

Overall, while many consider Dogecoin to be a fun, lighthearted investment, it is hard to claim that it is a promising long-term investment. Much of Dogecoin’s value is driven by social hype and the actions of Elon Musk, rather than solid fundamentals. This doesn't mean it is neccesariy a bad investment, just that it is risky and depends on unpredictable variables.

As mentioned, Dogecoin uses Scrypto technology like Litecoin, which uses less energy than Bitcoin’s SHA-256 mining algorithm. However, this factor alone is hard to justify Dogecoin’s hefty market cap compared to its hundreds of competitors. If the meme can stay alive, Dogecoin may be a great buy right now and possibly an even better long term investment.

How Long Will it Take for Dogecoin to Reach $1?

How high can Dogecoin go? Influencers certainly think they know. It is surprisingly common for any crypto influencer to give a crazy Dogecoin price prediction of entirely unrealistic prices like $5 or $10 soon. A more reasonable short- or medium-term goal for Dogecoin might be $1, which would still be an extremely impressive achievement. If it reaches $1, it will likely be due to celebrity endorsements, although it could simply slowly rise along with the rest of the crypto market. In its Dogecoin price prediction, WalletInvestor forecasts that it will only reach about $0.50 by 2025. This may seem pathetic and too slow for investors hoping for a similar move in about 1 month, like the coin experienced in May. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen again so fast because the market cap is much higher than it was before the first explosion.

How to Buy Dogecoin (DOGE)

Overall, investors should have a relatively easy time buying DOGE given its large market capitalization. DOGE and other cryptocurrencies can be traded on major exchanges such as eToro, Robinhood and Crypto.com.

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How to Store Dogecoin Safely

Cryptocurrencies can be stored using a hardware wallet or a software wallet. A hardware wallet is widely regarded as the most secure way to store crypto. It keeps your private keys offline so that your crypto is inaccessible to anyone but the holder of the private keys. 

Ledger wallet is a great choice for a hardware wallet –– Ledger claims to provide the highest level of security for crypto assets. It is the largest hardware wallet brand in the world and has 3 fantastic models: the Nano S, Nano S Plus and Nano X.

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So, is Now a Good Time to Buy Dogecoin (DOGE)?

If you are a long-term investor, it may be a good time to buy Dogecoin to start building a position over the coming months. Fearful environments often present greater opportunities in hindsight to accumulate an asset before the hype picks back up. However, the current macroeconomic backdrop is still gloomy, which means that accumulating DOGE is risky. Further downside is more than likely in the short term. As a result, prudent investors will wait for signs of consolidation and a stabilization in prices before establishing positions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Questions & Answers

Q
Is now a good time to buy Dogecoin?
A

Given Dogecoin is a memecoin, it is extremely risky to purchase DOGE during the bear market. Social sentiment changes very quickly, and it is possible that another meme coin may take the spotlight in the next bull run. In terms of risk and reward, investors with high conviction in Dogecoin may view the current price of roughly $0.06 as an attractive price given the all-time high of around $0.70.

Q
Can Dogecoin reach new all-time highs?
A

In light of the current macroeconomic backdrop, it is unlikely that DOGE will reach all-time highs any time soon. However, it is still possible that Dogecoin eventually reaches all-time highs if the meme is kept alive by Elon Musk and friends.

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