Consumers received some short-lived relief at the gas pumps nationwide in recent weeks, but the trend won’t last, according to fuel expert Patrick De Haan.
"It’s STILL not over,” De Haan, known as GasBuddyGuy, said on social media.
De Haan, who regularly shares rising and falling gas prices at stations nationwide, says Americans have spent $138.8 billion more on gas since March 1, 2026, than they did last year, due to the Iran War.
While gas prices have come down somewhat from record highs in several states, relief may not be as big as consumers hope.
Spot prices in Great Lakes states keep rising. For now, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin face a risk of further gas price increases, but Ohio does not. Illinois is complicated, but Chicago suburbs at lower risk as well for the moment," De Haan tweeted on Thursday, Oct. 22.
As for when gas prices might fall, De Haan believes it will take a major de-escalation between the United States and Iran and between Ukraine and Russia, two international conflicts that have caused the price of oil to spike.
As for when that could happen, De Haan isn’t predicting anytime soon to see gas or diesel to fall below key levels.
"Diesel prices nationally will not fall below $6/gal prior to the midterms, and gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms – both will remain elevated until there is a clear de-escalation [between] US/Iran and Ukraine/Russia," De Haan tweeted Wednesday, Oct. 21.
What’s Next
Rising gasoline prices have become a major talking point for the 2026 midterm elections and could change the look of Congress in 2027 if the Democratic Party can win seats from upset Americans paying more at the pump.
President Donald Trump has promised the price of gas will come down after the Iran escalation is over, but barring a major update, that is unlikely before the election.
Higher gas prices could benefit oil companies as oil barrel prices rise, as well as refineries. Rising gas prices hurt other sectors and could push consumers to cut spending to offset the rise.
The longer gas prices stay high, the more people look for gas savings through wholesale retail membership programs like those from Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) and Sam’s Club, a Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) unit.
Costco has reported record numbers for its gas station business where it saves members money at the pump.
Walmart recently launched a combo subscription service pairing a Sam’s Club membership with a Walmart+ membership, which could be more appealing with the gas savings.
USO Price Action
On Friday, the United States Oil Fund rose to new 52-week highs of $168.91. The fund is up 145% year-to-date in 2026.
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