Since Elon Musk‘s Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) share business relationships, investors wonder when a potential merger between the two companies will unfold.
With both companies reporting financial results this week, Benzinga polled its "PreMarket Playbook" audience to gauge how retail investors feel about the potential timing of a deal. "Do you think $SPCX and $TSLA will merge?" Benzinga asked the show‘s viewers on Friday, Oct. 16. These are the results:
- Yes – but not until 2027 or later: 48%
- No – stays separate: 25%
- Yes – by TSLA annual meeting: 22%
- Roadster flies first: 5%
To put the results into perspective, 70% of viewers think the merger will happen, either by Dec. 3 or sometime into the future.
Twenty-five percent of voters said the companies will remain separate.
"PreMarket Playbook" airs Monday through Friday at 8 a.m. ET on Benzinga’s YouTube channel. The latest poll included responses from 100 viewers.
These odds from Benzinga viewers differ from prediction market Kalshi.
On Kalshi, the odds of the two companies merging before Jan. 1 2027 stand at only 15%. With the annual meeting date coming before then, 25% of Benzinga viewers predict a merger before then.
The odds of a merger being completed by April 1, 2027 stand at 49% on Kalshi. The Benzinga poll shows that nearly a majority (48%) predict a merger in 2027 or later. While it’s hard to pinpoint an exact month next year when viewers expect the merger to happen, the poll is likely more optimistic about it happening than the prediction odds.
What Experts Say
Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black said a merger between SpaceX and Tesla is "inevitable" because Musk has significant control over the votes in both companies.
Black cautions that a merger may not be as big a win as some investors expect because of "massive dilution" and the stock-for-stock deal. Black predicts SpaceX bidding $420 per share for Tesla.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan recently predicted that SpaceX will acquire Tesla for $480 per share, valuing the combined companies at $3.74 trillion.
The analyst predicts that Tesla shareholders would own around 48% of the combined business.
Gerber Kawasaki CEO Ross Gerber said a potential merger is more likely after Tesla demonstrated the Roadster’s flight capabilities. The move "has become obvious," Gerber said.
Musk has also hinted at a merger between the two companies for years, but ultimately will need the approval of shareholders.
What’s Next
Tesla’s annual meeting, which includes the vote for several board of directors members, will take place on Dec. 3.
Photo: Paulm1993 / Shutterstock – ek
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