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Sunrun Inc. (RUN) has fared better than most other solar energy stocks this year. A robust subscription model and strong earnings have led investors to send shares up 83% year-to-date. Rising power demands from AI data centers could lift results, but the federal solar tax credit expires in 2025 and consumer revenue will face a meaningful challenge.
In this article, we’ll look at RUN’s latest share price, Wall Street sentiment, multiyear price forecasts, and the key factors that are playing a critical role in the company’s path going forward.
Current Stock Overview
Market Cap: $4 billion
Trailing P/E Ratio: n/a
Forward P/E Ratio: 7.54
1-Year Return: -8%
2025 YTD: 83%
Sunrun shares currently trade at around $17 due to a strong year-to-date rally and have recovered most of their losses since a 52-week high of $18.56 back in January.
Recent Q2 results showed a 15% year-over-year increase in subscribers to 941,701. These subscribers typically sign contracts that last 20 to 25 years, resulting in steady revenue that offers some insulation against the expiring solar tax credit that comes at the end of the year. Sunrun delivered 9% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 while more than doubling its profits. Its full-year 2025 guidance on aggregate subscriber value remained unchanged, and the company still projects 14% growth at the midpoint.
Sunrun may also be an artificial intelligence (AI) play. In its Q2 earnings presentation in August, the company said it’s signed agreements to be a distributed power plant provider to retail electricity providers amid the power demand surge from AI data centers. Sunrun cited a “significant increase in interest from strategic energy companies that serve load” due to AI.
Investors, however, cannot ignore the dark tax cloud looming over the solar industry. A significant chunk of recent revenue growth may be due to consumers racing to buy solar panels before incentives expire after Dec. 31. Without federal tax credits, they’ll face much higher solar panel costs, which could have a deep impact on sales and make it harder to parse current company forecasts.
RUN has a consensus Hold rating from 23 analysts, according to Benzinga. The average price target is $18.07 per share, which suggests a slight upside from current levels. The highest price target is $38, and the lowest is $6. The three most recent ratings suggest a near-term average target of $19.33, suggesting a 13.49% upside.
Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions & Methodology for Forecasting
Bull & Bear Case
Sunrun has delivered impressive revenue growth in 2025 and may get a boost from AI power demands. However, the expiring solar tax credit is a huge concern for future demand. These are the bullish and bearish points to consider.
Bull Case
- Sunrun’s subscription model offers more insulation from the tax credit expiration due to its recurring revenue
- Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, making solar panel financing more attractive for potential buyers
- Increased AI power needs can boost demand for Sunrun’s products
Bear Case
- The solar panel tax credit is set to expire in 2025, which will make it significantly more expensive for consumers to install solar panels
- 2025 earnings may not be a good gauge for what 2026 will look like, since current revenue growth may be tied to consumers wanting to install solar panels before the tax credit expires. The rush of buyers could lead to challenging 2026 comps.
- Consumer demand for residential solar panels may go down in 2026 and beyond due to the expiration of the tax credit
Stock Price Prediction for 2025
Nothing dramatic is expected for Sunrun’s stock price as investors hold their breath leading up to the solar tax credit’s expiration. CoinCodex suggests a moderate gain for the rest of the year. Tailwinds include lower interest rates, Sunrun’s subscription model, and potential growth from AI power demand, but the solar tax credit expiration is the main thing investors are focusing on right now.
Stock Price Prediction for 2026
CoinCodex projects a meaningful drop from current levels in 2026 in Sunrun’s first year without the solar tax credit. Investors will also get a better understanding of the residential solar panel industry’s resilience when they see if spending can keep up with this year’s levels, or if 2025 was a blip due to a rush to buy solar panels right before the tax credit’s expiration. CoinCodex’s bearish forecast isn’t encouraging.
Stock Price Prediction for 2030
CoinCodex projects another meaningful drop for 2030 in a forecast that assumes residential solar panel demand remains sluggish and Sunrun isn’t able to capitalize on the AI power demand surge. While its subscription model still provides recurring revenue, CoinCodex’s forecast assumes Sunrun will struggle to achieve the same growth rates without the tax credit.
Investment Considerations
Sunrun has been a beaten-down solar energy stock that’s started to regain some momentum this year. While the federal solar tax credit expiration is a major setback, the company’s subscription model provides some insulation, and a pivot into filling the needs of AI power demand could present new revenue growth opportunities.
The stock may be best suited for growth investors who believe the residential solar panel industry is resilient in 2026 and Sunrun gets more AI exposure. It’s a bit too risky for value investors or those who don’t want to deal with volatility.
Sunrun faces challenging comps in 2026, which can result in low year-over-year changes to revenue and net income. CoinCodex currently presents bearish long-term forecasts for the stock.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RUN stock a good long-term investment?
RUN stock may be a good long-term investment if residential solar energy remains resilient and the company can capitalize on AI. However, CoinCodex has issued bearish long-term price projections for the stock.
What is the current consensus rating for RUN stock?
RUN currently has a consensus rating of Hold that comes from 23 analysts.
Does RUN stock pay a dividend?
RUN stock does not pay a dividend. The company reinvests profits back into the business.
About Marc Guberti
Marc Guberti is an investing writer passionate about helping people learn more about money management, investing and finance. He has more than 10 years of writing experience focused on finance and digital marketing. His work has been published in U.S. News & World Report, USA Today, InvestorPlace and other publications.
