Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Price Prediction: 2025, 2026, 2030

Analysts are saying that Phillips 66 could rise by 2030. Bullish on PSX? Invest in Phillips 66 on SoFi with no commissions. If it’s your first time signing up for SoFi, you’ll receive up to $1,000 in stock when you first fund your account. Plus, get a 1% bonus if you transfer your investments and keep them there until December 31, 2025.

Phillips 66 (PSX) is currently playing on the cyclical strength of its downstream margins and long-term capital allocation toward cleaner energy projects and asset streamlining. Following its decision to shut down its Los Angeles refinery and focus on midstream and chemical operations, investors can expect continued volatility with a bullish long-term outlook tied to energy demand recovery.

In this article, we’ll review PSX’s current price and valuation, examine price-target forecasts through 2030, analyze Wall Street’s latest sentiment, and break down the bullish and bearish outlooks shaping the stock’s risk/reward proposition.

Current PSX Stock Overview

• Market Cap: $54.53 billion
• Trailing P/E: 32.05
• Forward P/E: 12.85
• 1 Year Return: -19%
• YTD Return: +7%

Shares of Phillips 66 are trading at about $133 as of October, 2025. The stock has traded near its 52-week high of roughly $142, signaling resilience after dips to around $91 within the past year. The average price for the last 52 weeks stands near $123, reflecting the energy sector’s mixed performance amid global supply concerns and transition to cleaner fuels.

Phillips 66 recently provided an update confirming the safe idling of its Los Angeles Refinery operations, with the final crude processing date expected around mid-October 2025, marking the end of conventional refining at the site. This move complements the earlier conversion of the former Rodeo Refinery into the Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex, which reached its targeted capacity of 50,000 barrels per day (BPD) of renewable fuels. 

The company also reported a strong second quarter in 2025, with a significant rebound in refining earnings driven by high utilization rates and favorable crack spreads, which helped offset weaker performance in its Chemicals and Midstream segments. Phillips is also dealing with non-operational risks, including a recent court order in August 2025 to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in damages for trade-secret misappropriation related to its biofuel business.

According to Benzinga, Phillips 66 currently has a consensus Hold rating from a survey of 20 analysts with a price target of about $145. Individual targets show a considerable spread, ranging from a high of about $180, issued by BofA Securities in March 2024, to a low of about $122, issued by Morgan Stanley in April 2025. 

The three most recent analyst ratings from Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, and UBS assigned an average price target of about $148. This suggests an implied upside of 11% for the stock from its current trading price, indicating that recent professional opinion leans toward modest capital appreciation despite the consensus Hold.

Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions

Bull & Bear Case

The bull case rests on maximizing the profits from its conventional assets during periods of high crack spreads and successfully scaling its renewable fuels division, while the bear case is focused on cyclical downturns and operational missteps in its major strategic pivot.

Bull Case

• Phillips 66’s core refining operations consistently deliver industry-leading utilization and strong profits, directly supporting the stock when market conditions like favorable crack spreads are present.
• The completed Rodeo facility conversion positions Phillips 66 to capitalize on high-margin renewable fuels, thanks to a major investment in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel capacity.
• Unlike pure refiners, Phillips 66 benefits from steady, fee-based revenue from its sizable Midstream and Chemicals businesses, which help stabilize cash flow during periods of weaker refining margins.
• If tariffs are imposed on Canadian or Mexican crude, Phillips 66’s inland refineries could benefit from discounted feedstock, potentially boosting local crack spreads and refinery profitability.

Bear Case

• Phillips 66’s annual earnings are extremely sensitive to even small changes in refining margins, with a one-dollar per barrel shift potentially impacting results by hundreds of millions.
• Ongoing legal battles and compliance issues, highlighted by the recent court order for major damages related to biofuel trade secrets, could expose the company to significant financial drains as it expands into renewable fuels.
• The company’s elevated net debt-to-capital ratio after major spending on projects like Rodeo Renewed reduces financial flexibility and may limit shareholder returns or the ability to fund further growth without additional borrowing.

PSX Stock Price Prediction for 2025

Bearish Prediction

$119.27

Average Prediction

$33.37

Bullish Prediction

$151.59

Invest Now

According to CoinCodex, Phillips 66 is projected to experience a moderate trading range in 2025 with periodic volatility. Analysts signal mixed views about short-term economic and operational impacts, including tariff effects on crude supplies and competitive refining conditions. Investors should expect fluctuations reflecting energy market uncertainty rather than a clear directional trend.

PSX Stock Price Prediction for 2026

Bearish Prediction

$126.71

Average Prediction

$164.49

Bullish Prediction

$203.18

Invest Now

CoinCodex’s algorithmic models project that the stock will see an expansive range as the company moves past its immediate transition costs and begins to demonstrate consistent earnings from its restructured portfolio. 

Share movement will be particularly sensitive to global energy policy and the price of Canadian crude, which, in the event of new tariffs, could significantly impact Phillips 66’s refining segment's profitability and contribute to the pronounced trading range anticipated for the year.

PSX Stock Price Prediction for 2030

Bearish Prediction

$244.46

Average Prediction

$279.34

Bullish Prediction

$321.77

Invest Now

CoinCodex forecasts for 2030 suggest that Phillips 66 will experience significant long-term growth, aligning with a bullish outlook for the end of the decade. The optimistic projection is based on the assumption that the company will have successfully completed its energy transition strategy, fully leveraging its midstream assets and becoming a dominant player in the lower-carbon fuel sector, thereby justifying a substantial uplift in its market valuation. 

Investment Considerations

Investors should carefully monitor Phillips 66’s ongoing operational transitions, especially the phased idling of its Los Angeles refinery, which brings one-time charges and environmental costs affecting short-term profitability. The company’s strategy to offset refinery closures by strengthening midstream and chemical segments positions it well for evolving energy demands, but transition costs will remain a consideration. 

While Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project is fully operational, its long-term profitability is heavily reliant on the price and stability of Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits, which currently face pressure from oversupply. Potential geopolitical or trade policy shifts, such as new tariffs on Canadian or Mexican crude, could unexpectedly shift the company’s feedstock costs. 

Phillips 66 has acknowledged that tariffs on crude would likely widen the discount for Canadian crude, potentially benefiting its inland refineries, but it also introduces new supply chain risks and operational complexity that investors must account for.

Investors should evaluate the company’s financial discipline and debt management against its commitment to shareholder returns. Phillips 66’s diversified model provides stability, but the company’s recent high net debt-to-capital ratio suggests reduced financial flexibility compared to its long-term goals. 

While Phillips 66 maintains an attractive dividend yield and growth, future capital returns depend heavily on sustained operational cash flow from both the profitable refining segment and the maturing renewable fuels business. Investors focused on income must confirm that the company's capital allocation strategy, balancing new growth investments with debt reduction and dividends, remains sound and sustainable over the full investment horizon.

Frequently Asked Questions