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Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) has hit a prolonged rough patch after a meme-stock moment four years ago sent the stock soaring by more than 400%. Shares have since given back almost all those gains as the luxury electric vehicle (EV) maker loses ground to rivals. With the stock falling far enough to be at risk of delisting, the company recently initiated a reverse 1-for-10 split. 

Most analysts are cautious about LCID, with price predictions for 2025, 2026, and 2030 showing long-term downside for the EV maker. In this article we’ll look at Lucid’s current valuation and the challenges it faces to find and hold a lasting place in the EV market. 

Current Stock Overview

• Market Cap: $3.73 billion
• Trailing P/E Ratio: N/A
• Forward P/E Ratio: N/A
• 1-Year Return: -58%
• 2025 YTD: -62%

Lucid shares are trading at around $12 as of December 2025. The stock is down by more than 58% year-to-date and has been a bumpy ride for investors. However the stock trades at a 3.59 P/S ratio which is about half of what it was a year ago, indicating that Lucid stock has become more affordable. 

Lucid’s shares began trading post-split in September. While investors generally get excited about traditional stock splits, a reverse split is the opposite because it indicates that a company isn’t financially stable. It doesn’t affect intrinsic value, but it’s usually a last resort to prevent delisting.

Recent Q3 results have shown some promise, however. Lucid produced 3,891 EVs and delivered 4,078 vehicles in the quarter, representing significant year-over-year growth in both production and deliveries. Revenue also climbed 68% compared with the same period last year, reaching approximately $336.6 million. Other highlights included continued strategic partnerships — such as with Uber’s robotaxi engineering fleet and a collaboration to advance autonomous driving tech — and total liquidity that would have been about $5.5 billion after an expanded credit facility, giving it ample cash runway.

Meanwhile, broader industry incentives like a federal EV tax credit program are winding down, which could hurt sales moving forward. Lucid is also still burning through cash at a rapid pace. The EV maker reported a net loss of around $978 million in Q3, and although gross revenue grew, the company continues to operate well into the red. Lucid currently loses money on each vehicle sold, making its long-term business model’s path to profitability uncertain.

LCID has a consensus Sell rating, with an average price target of $9.41 based on the ratings of 14 analysts. The highest recent forecast is $30, and the lowest is $1 pre-split. The three most recent ratings suggest a near-term average target of $16 (split adjusted), implying a 39% upside.

Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions

Bull & Bear Case

Lucid was a top-performing stock during the EV meme craze, but its fall from grace will be difficult to overcome. These are some of the bullish and bearish points to consider.

Bull Case

• The EV industry is projected to maintain a compounded annual growth rate of 6.01% from now until 2029.
• Lucid projects it will reach 171,000 unit sales per year by 2030.
• Lucid’s EV/sales ratio of around 3.8–4.1 is lower than its recent 3-year average of approximately 9.4
• Lucid expects to release a lower-cost mid-size SUV in 2026, which could attract more customers

Bear Case

• Lucid burns through cash based on its deeply negative profit margin, which remains in the bottom tier of its industry with a net profit margin of roughly –290.7% in Q3 2025.
• Regular net losses can cause the company to raise additional funds, which would further dilute shareholders.
• Competitors like Tesla and BYD are taking market share from Lucid.
• Its production ramp is experiencing delays.

Stock Price Prediction for 2025

This price point implies a moderate upside from current levels. A lack of profits and a small market share are two significant headwinds the EV maker will have to overcome on the path to this forecast.

Stock Price Prediction for 2026

As investors focus more on the company’s financials and less on its meme potential, the stock risks staying in place or enduring some losses. The average price target suggests a modest gain from current levels.

Stock Price Prediction for 2030

A CoinCodex-projected average price target indicates analysts have plenty of doubts about Lucid’s ability to take market share from competitors and remain financially solvent amid deep losses.

The average price target implies a moderate drop from current levels. The average price target comes out to a -0.4% CAGR over five years. 

Investment Considerations

Lucid presents several red flags that suggest investors should be wary. The company is burning through cash and isn’t doing enough to gain meaningful ground against big competitors like Tesla and BYD. LCID’s price forecasts assume the worst, and it’s understandable why analysts feel that way. Rising revenue and higher delivery numbers are two of the few positives from Q2 as the company continues to face serious cash constraints. 

Key risks: Lucid loses market share to other EV giants, financial solvency becomes less likely, the EV market loses steam after EV tax credits are discontinued, robotaxi partnerships don’t go as planned, and delivery growth stalls

Lucid is best suited for investors who aren’t afraid to lose money. The stock is highly speculative, and a meme rally might still be in the cards. However, the fundamentals are unattractive.

Frequently Asked Questions 

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