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Shares of solar company Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) are down sharply over the past year due to soft guidance, the impact of tariffs on profit margins and the looming end of federal tax credits. However, high revenue growth, a strong U.S. residential solar market and hopes of its continued strength after credits expire may be enough to cause ENPH to recover.
In this article, we’ll look at ENPH’s latest share price, Wall Street sentiment, multiyear price forecasts, and the key factors that are playing a critical role in the company’s path going forward.
Current Stock Overview
Market Cap: $5 billion
Trailing P/E Ratio: 29.45
Forward P/E Ratio: 14.84
1-Year Return: -68%
2025 YTD: -47%
Enphase Energy’s stock is trading at around $37 per share as of October, which is a substantial drop from more than $70 at the beginning of the year. Shares have lost more than two-thirds of their value over the past 52 weeks.
Year-over-year Q2 revenue growth of 20% reported in July was encouraging. A projected 14.4% CAGR from now until 2030 for the U.S. residential solar industry from Grand View Research is another positive sign. However Enphase Energy has much greater uncertainties to contend with.
A federal solar tax credit is set to expire at the end of 2025, and without that incentive, consumers may be much less likely to buy solar panels, which are Enphase Energy’s main revenue source. Tariffs also have the potential to tighten profit margins since the company gets many of its battery cell packs and other materials from China.
Enphase Energy posted discouraging guidance in July with a forecast for Q3 revenue ranging between $330 million and $370 million, which would be a sharp drop from $381 million in Q3 2024. Tightening profit margins from tariffs will make the revenue drop even worse if the company loses sales by passing some of the tariff costs on to consumers.
ENPH has a consensus Hold rating from 33 analysts, according to Benzinga. The average price target is $59.08 per share, which suggests a meaningful upside from current levels. The highest price target is $130, and the lowest is $23.49. The three most recent ratings suggest a near-term average target of $32.87, suggesting a -10.25% downside.
Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions & Methodology for Forecasting
Year | Bearish Prediction | Average Prediction | Bullish Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 | $37.36 | $11.31 | $52.67 |
2026 | $33.79 | $46.99 | $60.72 |
2027 | $28.34 | $39.05 | $51.96 |
2028 | $26.24 | $32.06 | $35.75 |
2029 | $22.55 | $26.70 | $41.62 |
2030 | $18.53 | $34.74 | $51.47 |
The forecast range in this table is based on algorithmic projections provided by CoinCodex. These models use historical price trends, volatility patterns, and moving averages to estimate future stock prices over multiple time horizons.
Bull & Bear Case
Enphase Energy is well-removed from its all-time highs, but revenue growth picked up in July. These are some of the bullish and bearish points ENPH investors should consider.
Bull Case
- Revenue and net income growth rose in the second quarter
- The U.S. residential solar industry has an impressive CAGR
- ENPH stock is down sharply over the past year, resulting in a more attractive valuation
Bear Case
- Q3 guidance points to a year-over-year revenue decline
- Without a federal solar tax credit in 2026 to incentivize U.S. consumers, revenue could drop further
- Tariffs on foreign-made components can pressure profit margins
Stock Price Prediction for 2025
CoinCodex forecasts Enphase Energy stock’s average estimated value showing a slight gain this year from current levels. Positive momentum on demand for solar panels up to the end of 2025 may be offset by fears of a revenue decline in 2026.
Stock Price Prediction for 2026
CoinCodex sees Enphase Energy reaching an average estimated value that’s sharply higher in 2026. The forecast suggests the company beats expectations in Q3 and the U.S. residential solar industry is resilient despite changes to the tax policy.
Stock Price Prediction for 2030
CoinCodex’s average price target suggests a moderate upside over five years. This forecast assumes demand for solar panels remains stable despite a cutback in clean energy tax breaks.
Investment Considerations
Enphase Energy delivered strong Q2 results in July, but soft Q3 guidance leading up to the rollback of federal solar energy tax breaks points to a challenging road ahead. Still, there is a strong and growing U.S. demand for residential solar panels, which can offset some of the losses that will likely come from the withdrawal of tax breaks. Tighter profit margins due to tariffs can also pressure share prices, and a stock that’s down by more than 60% over the past year is a tough pitch for momentum investors.
Key risks: Discontinued tax breaks drive down solar panel demand, and soft guidance for Q3 is a sign of things to come
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ENPH stock a good long-term investment?
ENPH stock may be a good long-term investment due to its exposure to U.S. residential solar panels. However, it may face short-term challenges from tariffs and changes in the tax code.
What is the current consensus rating for ENPH stock?
ENPH currently has a consensus rating of Hold that comes from 33 analysts.
Does ENPH stock pay a dividend?
No. ENPH stock does not pay a dividend. The firm reinvests profits in the hopes of generating higher returns for investors.
About Marc Guberti
Marc Guberti is an investing writer passionate about helping people learn more about money management, investing and finance. He has more than 10 years of writing experience focused on finance and digital marketing. His work has been published in U.S. News & World Report, USA Today, InvestorPlace and other publications.
