Market Overview

A Look Ahead: Next Week's ETFs to Watch (EWG, GDXJ, GLD)

It took just four days for the S&P 500 to notch its worst trading week of 2012 and things aren't looking good for a strong Monday open. The epic disappointment that was the March jobs report send S&P 500 futures down 1.1% during Friday's shortened 45-minute trading session. S&P 500 futures closed just under 1,375 and there is now ample talk the index is headed back to 1,350.

Those are not the kinds of thoughts conducive to enjoying a long weekend. Neither is knowing first-quarter earnings season is about to kick off and S&P 500 earnings sans Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) won't show much, if any, growth.

With that, here are some ETFs to keep an eye on next week.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) After closing around $1,630 an ounce on Thursday, gold futures are still in a sensitive area, technically speaking. If psychological support at $1,600 an ounce doesn't hold, that mean a decline to $1,580 or even $1,550 is in the cards. GLD's already vulnerable chart what be doomed by that decline. The adventurous among us might want to give palladium a look.

Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF (NYSE: HAO) It was just one day, but the Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF did pop 2.5% on light volume on Thursday. More importantly, the ETF seems to be finding support at $22. That makes things pretty simple in both directions. Above $22, HAO is a long. Below there, it's a short.

iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (NYSE: EWG) Another case of a chart sending out some clear signals, the iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund has to contend with PIIGS headline risk once again. The PIIGS are a leech on the strength of the German economy and if Spanish and Italian bond yields continue rising next week, EWG could easily fall 3% to give up its 200-day line. There's your short signal.

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) Can you say capitulation? GDXJ apparently can. If GDXJ does not find support at $22, the next stopping point could easily be the $18-$19 area. There are two reasons to avoid GDXJ right now. First, the ETF didn't offer much upside when gold prices were rising, so what can one expect when gold futures fall? Second, GDXJ has been getting punished on strong volume. That's a tell and it's not good.

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