Invesco DB Agriculture Fund

Xtrackers MSCI All World ex US Hedged Equity ETF

The inflation data released Tuesday&nbsp;should convince investors that inflation isn&rsquo;t just transitory. The headline Consumer Price Index, measured year over year, was up 5.4% in June.
The core rate, which doesn&rsquo;t include food or energy, was up 4.5%. This blew away the estimates of 3.8% and was the largest move higher since September 1991.
Fortunately, some ETFs can be used to hedge stock portfolios against this inflation risk. They can even be used to profit in inflationary environments. One of them is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>).
This fund invests in agricultural commodities like wheat and soybeans. If their prices move higher, so should DBA.
<img alt="dba_0.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/dba_0.png" style="height:400px; width:640px" />

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This ETF Is An Inflation Hedge

While the pundits debate whether or not inflation is rising, the markets have spoken. And the answer is a resounding &ldquo;yes!&rdquo;
This inflation has caused commodity-based ETFs to rocket higher. This includes the Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/corn#NYSE">CORN</a>) and the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>).
The Teucrium Corn Fund invests in corn futures. Since August the price of corn has doubled and&nbsp;CORN has gained almost 20% in the past month.
<img alt="corn.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/corn.png" style="height:400px; width:640px" />
The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund&nbsp;invests in a wide range of agricultural futures. They include corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, cocoa&nbsp;and cattle.
The ETF has gained almost 10% over the past month.
<img alt="dba.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/dba.png" style="height:400px; width:640px" />

CORN

2 Commodity ETFs That Have Broken Out

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/blankfein-called-it-now-the-whole-world-is-watching-commodities?sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg </a>this weekend reported on the boom that is taking shape in the commodities markets.
What Happened: Investors are moving from the bull market in stocks to areas further afield in search of returns in a very-low interest rate environment.
&quot;Commodities haven&rsquo;t been this sexy since the mid-2000s, when China was stockpiling everything from copper to cotton,&quot; Bloomberg reports.
The story points to several developments:
<ul>
<li>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jpm#NYSE">JPM</a>) recommending a move away from bonds toward materials</li>
<li>Hedge fund bets at their highest levels in a decade, totalling nearly $120 billion</li>
<li>Agricultural markets also up more than 30% in the last decade</li>
<li>Corn at a seven-year high</li>
<li>Soybeans and wheat at their highest prices since 2014</li>
<li>Copper having the potential to rally&nbsp;20% to more than $10,000 a metric ton, according to Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Bank of America</li>
</ul>
Quick Ways To Jump In: If this makes you itchy to get in on the action, then here are three ETFs and two copper funds that can give you exposure to metals and agriculture, which we&nbsp;gathered by asking around the Benzinga staff for some quick ways to place bets.
Note that this is by no means a comprehensive list but some simple ways to buy if you believe these commodities will continue their rise.
<ul>
<li>Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) With $691.8 million in assets under management, this is one of the largest ETFs that holds actual agricultural commodities. Its 26-week return rate stands at&nbsp;20.79%, according to ETF Database.&nbsp;Its share price is up&nbsp;20.79% over the past six months and closed last week at&nbsp;$16.56.</li>
<li>For an ETF that holds&nbsp;agricultural stocks, the largest is&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/moo#NYSE">MOO</a>). It has $914.5 million in assets under management and &quot;the&nbsp;best ticker symbol out there,&quot; says Spencer Israel, producer of Benzinga&#39;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket-prep/">PreMarket Prep</a>.&nbsp;It has a 26-week return rate of&nbsp;31.32%, according to ETF Database.&nbsp;It is up&nbsp;29.89% over the past six months and closed last week at&nbsp;$82.14.</li>
<li>The VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/remx#NYSE">REMX</a>) holds stocks of companies that produce rare earth&nbsp;metals&nbsp;such as titanium, molybdenum, cerium, manganese&nbsp;and tungsten. It has&nbsp;$421.1 million in&nbsp;assets under management. The ETF&#39;s 26-week return rate is 89.57%, and its share price closed last week at&nbsp;$72.38, up 87.90% over six months.</li>
<li>For pure copper plays, also look into the&nbsp;Barclays iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex (NYSEARCA: JJC), which is an exchange-traded note, and the&nbsp;United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/cper#NYSE">CPER</a>), an exchange-traded product.</li>
</ul>
Image source: Pexels

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Futures

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CPER

Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Etf

REMX

Commodities May Be The Next Big Thing; Here Are 3 ETFs To Get Started

News

U.S. State Attorney General Asking DOJ For Antitrust Probe Of Meatpacking Industry

Due to uncertainty surrounding global trading conditions and the surging performance of equity investments through the first few months of 2019, traders have struggled to find a compelling upside in the commodity markets this year.
However, March may mark a turning point in the near-term prospects of many raw goods. The prices for oil and metals are still pushing year-to-date highs, while agricultural and soft commodities like soybeans and sugar have bounced from recent lows to cut some of the losses sustained since the U.S.-China tariffs took effect in mid-2018.
Now might be the time to find broad exposure to the commodities markets, and we can use the AI model portfolios on <a href="https://www.quantamize.com/About/Learn-More?utm_source=Bezinga&amp;utm_medium=Article&amp;utm_campaign=in-Growth-From-The-Ground-Up">Quantamize</a> to discover which commodity ETFs to be overweight heading into spring. Each <a href="https://www.quantamize.com/Marketing/Q-Folios?utm_source=Bezinga&amp;utm_medium=Article&amp;utm_campaign=in-Growth-From-The-Ground-Up">Quantamize Q-Folio </a>is rebalanced monthly to best position each investment theme for diversified alpha capture based on the model&rsquo;s multi-factor analysis
Using Quantamize&rsquo;s Commodities ETF Model Portfolio, we can see that agricultural and precious metal ETFs represent the portfolio&rsquo;s top ETF holdings.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/image2_11.png" onclick="imce.send('image2_11.png'); return false;" title=""><img alt="image2_11.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/image2_11.png" /></a> Image courtesy of Quantamize
For the soft commodities, the Invesco DB Agricultural Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) provides fairly broad exposure to an array of heavily traded agriculture goods, although its top holdings are primarily weighted toward cattle, soybean and sugar contracts.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/1_26.png" onclick="imce.send('1_26.png'); return false;" title=""><img alt="1_26.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/1_26.png" /></a> Image courtesy of Quantamize
Each of the Invesco agricultural ETFs top holdings has seen an uptick through March, in part due to positive trade signals and inclement planting weather driving down yield estimates. However, while sugar has made a 50 percent retracement towards its 12-month high, soybeans are struggling to remain consistently above $9 in the face of continuing trade friction between the U.S., a major producer of soybeans, and China, its biggest trading partner.
On the surface, that would make Q-Folio&rsquo;s weighting in Tecrium Soybean Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/soyb#NYSE">SOYB</a>) somewhat perplexing.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/2_19.png" onclick="imce.send('2_19.png'); return false;" title=""><img alt="2_19.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/2_19.png" /></a> Image courtesy of Quantamize
Both soybeans and SOYB made new 2019 lows midway through March. However, Chinese trade data from January indicates that, in spite of the tariffs, there was a month-over-month increase of more than double the amount of U.S. soybeans imported to China. What&rsquo;s more, negotiations between the nations&rsquo; trade officials have ensured the sale of an additional 10 million tons of soybeans to China, although that won&rsquo;t likely materialize until a larger agreement to ease trade tensions is reached.
Technically, the recent low coupled with the slow and steady progress on the trade front could help the bean rebound from its early March dip and, ideally, post some positive gains in the coming weeks.
<h3>Don&rsquo;t Forget The Yellow Metal</h3>
The third largest weighting in Quantamize&rsquo;s Commodities ETF Model Portfolio is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:SPDR) ETF, a perfect counterbalance to the trade uncertainty weighing on most of the rest of the commodities market.
Year-to-date, both GLD and gold have been relatively flat. However, gold&rsquo;s climb through the waning months of 2018 helped it retake levels it hadn&rsquo;t seen in more than six months. This has led to a recent uptick in redemptions from the fund, which you can see in the ETFs fund flow data, though its six-month flow remains net positive. This makes it an attractive medium-term hedge within the portfolio.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/3_15.png" onclick="imce.send('3_15.png'); return false;" title=""><img alt="3_15.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u105576/3_15.png" /></a> Image courtesy of Quantamize
Overall, the Q-Folio model seems to be bullish on the indications coming from the agricultural sector, while also leaving room for a prolonged battle over trading conditions between the world&rsquo;s two largest economies. The moral seems to be that the market&rsquo;s deepest held hopes for a resolution will be rewarded eventually, but don&rsquo;t bet the farm on it.
Quantamize is a content partner of Benzinga

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General

SOYB

Growth From The Ground Up: A Model ETF Portfolio For An Agriculture And Precious Metals Hedge

Commodity and forex trader and Factory Trading founder Peter Brandt joined <a href="http://premarket.benzinga.com/pre-market-show/">PreMarket Prep</a> on Wednesday to discuss a number of topics, including tariffs, interest rates, crude oil, bitcoin and gold.
Brandt is looking forward to trading in his sixth different decade when 2020 rolls around, and he shared some of his trading wisdom with listeners.
<h3>Trouble For Trump</h3>
Most commodity prices have been hit hard thanks to the international trade war, and Brandt said President Trump needs to remember in which states his supporters live or he could be in trouble.
&ldquo;You take a look at where corn&nbsp;and wheat and beans are grown, and it&rsquo;s states that were won by Trump,&rdquo; Brandt said. &ldquo;Everybody&rsquo;s focusing for the election on immigration; no one&rsquo;s talking about farm prices. I think the Trump White House is in big trouble if for no other reason than egg prices are skidding along the bottom of a 20-year low.&rdquo;
<h3>Interest Rates</h3>
Brandt said he&rsquo;s not buying the fears that rising interest rates will hurt stock prices.
&ldquo;If the stock market gets hit, it&rsquo;s not going to be because of rates,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;I took a mortgage out in 1983 at 14 percent. These interest rates are mild. This economy can certainly handle 5 or 6 percent T bill rates.&rdquo;
<h3>Oil Outlook</h3>
Brandt also said crude oil prices could certainly continue higher, but additional upside may be limited at this point.
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s going to be a point at which fundamentals start to change again, and we&rsquo;re already seeing supply start to come back online,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t know where we go from here, but we could get back into the $80&#39;s I suppose. For me, there&rsquo;s no chart signal, so there&rsquo;s no trade.&rdquo;
<h3>Bitcoin&rsquo;s Bust</h3>
Brandt also discussed bitcoin&#39;s huge 2018 sell-off. He said that assuming bitcoin is the best expression of distributed ledger technology, long-term bulls need to keep the 2018 sell-off and the 2017 run-up in perspective.
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s never been a market like the bitcoin market, that I can find,&rdquo; Brandt said about the 2017 run. &ldquo;It takes a long time then to digest those gains...and it usually takes a lot longer than anyone thinks.&rdquo;
&ldquo;The average peak to valley to eventually new peak in bitcoin&#39;s history as an instrument is 89 weeks, and that&rsquo;s closer to two years than one year,&rdquo; he said.
<h3>Gold Losing Its Luster</h3>
Finally, Brandt weighed in on gold prices, which have been dropping of late no matter which direction the stock market heads.
&ldquo;I think the December 2017 lows are going to be crucial in gold,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;Gold has big headwind--gold&rsquo;s at 80 times the price of silver, 1.5 times the price of platinum.&rdquo;
&ldquo;If I still was short gold, I&rsquo;d still be hanging with it. Markets always provide a surprise, and the surprise in gold could be we go down and test the $1,000 level again.&rdquo;
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&amp;v=qnBPisnvZ58">Click here</a> to watch Brandt&#39;s full interview.
<h3>Price Action</h3>
Here&rsquo;s a look at how some of the popular ETFs related to the commodities Brandt discussed have been trading so far in 2018:
<ul>
<li>PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) is down 4.9 percent.</li>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/uso#NYSE">USO</a>) is up 24.1 percent.</li>
<li>Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gbtc#OTC">GBTC</a>) is down 61.1 percent.</li>
<li>SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) is down 4.1 percent.</li>
</ul>
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/17/06/9572095/grown-from-grain-peter-brandt-to-talk-career-market-philosophy-on-premarket-prep">Grown From Grain: Peter Brandt To Talk Career, Market Philosophy</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/investing/what-is-a-commodity/">What is a Commodity?</a>

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

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Peter Brandt Talks Trump, Oil, Bitcoin And Gold: 'No One's Talking About Farm Prices'

Speaking on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-07-13/how-to-trade-the-powershares-db-agriculture-fund-video">Bloomberg Markets</a>, Pravit Chintawongvanich of Macro Risk Advisors spoke about an options strategy in PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>).
He explained that the ETF tracks 10 agriculture products which have a very low correlation and as a result the ETF doesn&#39;t move too much. Chintawongvanich wants to buy the stock and sell the January 20 call for 95 cents. He said that he doesn&#39;t have an opinion about a potential direction of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dba">PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund</a>, but he thinks the implied volatility is elevated and he wants exploit that by selling the call.

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Macro Risk Advisors' PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund Trade

On <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/06/29/fast-money-final-trades-xlf-ibb-and-more.html">CNBC&#39;s &quot;Fast Money Final Trade&quot;</a>, Tim Seymour said that investors should buy Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xlf#NYSE">XLF</a>).
David Seaburg thinks that iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF) (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ibb#NASDAQ">IBB</a>) is a buy.
Brian Kelly recommended a long position in PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) as a hedge against inflation.
Guy Adami is a buyer of iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tlt#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).

CNBC

Fast Money

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Sector ETFs: Fast Money Picks For June 30

Broadly speaking, commodities are a disappointing asset class this year, particularly when considering the U.S. dollar is one of the worst-performing developed market currencies. Commodities are denominated in U.S. dollars, meaning that when the dollar slides, commodities should do the opposite.
Year-to-date, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major developed market currencies, is off nearly 5 percent. The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) is lower by less than 1 percent.
<h3>Agriculture Vs. The Greenback</h3>
DBA, which turned 10 years old earlier this year, tracks the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index Excess Return. That benchmark &ldquo;is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities,&rdquo; <a href="https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/financial-professional/etfs/product-detail?productId=DBA">according to PowerShares</a>, the fourth-largest U.S. ETF issuer.
&ldquo;Presently, DBA has its highest weighting to Live Cattle (17.21 percent), followed by a 12.58 percent allocation to Corn, 12.11 percent to Soybeans, 11.99 percent to Wheat, 10.33 percent to Lean Hogs, 10.23 percent to Sugar, 8.61 percent to Cocoa, 8.33 percent to Coffee, 5.50 percent to Feeder Cattle and 3.06 percent to Cotton,&rdquo; <a href="http://streetonefinancial.com/">Street One Financial</a> Vice President Paul Weisbruch said in a note.
<h3>Digging Into DBA</h3>
Home to $706 million in assets under management, DBA is one of the largest agricultural exchange-traded products on the market. Since the ETF tracks an index and not commodities futures, investors are less exposed to dangers of contango that arise with some futures-based commodities ETFs. Contango is the scenario where traders are paying more than a futures contract today than the commodity&#39;s spot price is expected to be several months out.
Several well-known agricultural commodities exchange traded products &ldquo;are ETFs and not ETNs, which may be useful for those investors or portfolio managers whom are prohibited from investing in ETNs &mdash; or simply favor the ETF product structure for various reasons,&rdquo; said Weisbruch.
DBA also makes sense for investors looking for exposure to less liquid, more volatile commodities rather than opting for an ETF exclusively dedicated to the likes of coffee, cotton or cocoa. Those are among the most volatile commodities, agricultural or otherwise.
Investors have pulled $8 million from DBA over the past month, <a href="https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/financial-professional/etfs/tools/flow-trend-tracker">according to PowerShares data</a>.
Related links:&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/cnbc/17/05/9487255/2017s-worst-performing-etfs-have-one-thing-in-common">2017&#39;s Worst Performing ETFs Have One Thing In Common</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/02/9091612/powershares-launches-four-multi-asset-etfs">PowerShares Launches 4 Multi-Asset ETFs</a>

A Farmville Opportunity With A Commodities ETF

The West Coast/California drought has finally ended, with Gov. Jerry Brown lifting the drought emergency in most parts of California, barring a few San Joaquin Valley counties. Does this mark the all clear for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/14/09/4830201/how-droughts-affect-the-stock-market">investors</a> in the agriculture sector?
Not necessarily.
Let's take a look at performance of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/07/8201485/down-on-the-farm-looking-at-the-agribusiness-etf">agriculture-related stocks </a> over cycles of drought.
<h3>Driest Ever Drought In California</h3>
The most recent drought in California spanned from December 2011 to April 2017 and has the distinction of being the driest in the history of the state. The state has ordered a 25 percent cut in urban water use in June 2015, as a countermeasure to tackle the drought. The worst affected of all are the farmers, as they use about 80 percent of all water consumed. 
California is the pivot in the nation's agricultural fabric, as it has been topping the states in agricultural production since 1948, producing almost all of domestic fruits, nuts and vegetables, according to a <a href="http://wire.kapitall.com/investment-idea/highly-profitable-agriculture-stocks-californias-drought/"> report</a> in Kapitallwire.
Droughts would have a telling impact on industries exposed to agriculture and allied activities. Agri-input companies such as seed companies and manufacturers of fertilizers and pesticides and farm machinery and equipment makers are among the worst hit.
However, comparing droughts is a tough assignment, given that a drought can be defined in terms of a host of metrics such as rainfall, condition of vegetation, agricultural productivity, soil moisture, levels of reservoir and stream flow, economic impact etc., a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2015/05/13/forget-california-north-america-has-faced-far-worst-droughts/#2e593bc632dd"> Forbes article </a> said quoting scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.
The Forbes article delved on some of the worst droughts in the history of the United States:
<ul>
<li>Dust Bowl of 1930s.</li>
<li>Great Plains/Southwest Drought: 1950&ndash;1957.</li>
<li>Californian Drought: 1977&ndash;1978.</li>
<li>Californian Drought: 1987&ndash;1989.</li>
<li>Turn-of-the-century Drought: 1999&ndash;2008.</li>
<li>Californian Drought of 2011&ndash;2016.</li>
</ul>
<h3>How Agricultural Stocks Fared Through Recent Californian Drought</h3>
 PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>), the iPath Bloomberg Grains Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/jjg#NYSE">JJG</a>) and the ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Cmdty Agri TR ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rja#NYSE">RJA</a>) all fared badly during this six year period.
The DBA has lost 39 percent since 2011; the JJG, 46.9 percent; and the RJA, 41.2 percent.
<a href="https://ycharts.com/companies/JJG/chart/#/?zoom=custom&amp;startDate=01/01/2011&amp;calcs=include:true,id:price,,&amp;format=indexed&amp;title=&amp;maxPoints=850&amp;splitType=single&amp;quotes=true&amp;legendOnChart=&amp;securitylistName=&amp;recessions=&amp;partner=&amp;note=&amp;correlations=&amp;endDate=04/13/2017&amp;securityGroup=&amp;quoteLegend=&amp;securities=include:true,id:JJG,,include:true,id:RJA,,include:true,id:DBA&amp;source=&amp;displayTicker=false&amp;securitylistSecurityId=&amp;units=&amp;scaleType="><img src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/60e62eda60b2bf6b1ae56d9af5bc98ef.png" alt="JJG Chart" /></a> 
Source: Y Charts
The Market Vectors Agribusiness (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/moo#NYSE">MOO</a>), which has companies deriving at least 50 percent of their revenues from agricultural business, including fertilizer, seed and food companies, was largely on a consolidation mode, in a broad range, for most part of the drought.
After declining steeply in late 2015, the index has staged a nice recovery, advancing about 16.41 percent since 2016.
The index is down about 0.9 percent over the period between 2011 and 2016.
Looking at individual stocks:
Agricultural Produce Companies
<ul>
<li>Limoneira Company (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lmnr#NASDAQ">LMNR</a>): -32.1 percent since 2011.</li>
<li>Calavo Growers, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cvgw#NASDAQ">CVGW</a>): +168.2 percent since 2011.</li>
</ul>
Agri-Input Companies &mdash; Seeds/ Fertilizers/Pesticides Manufacturers
<ul>
<li>Monsanto Company (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mon#NYSE">MON</a>): +68.82 percent since 2011.</li>
<li>Syngenta AG (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/syt#NYSE">SYT</a>): +56.26 percent since 2011.</li>
<li>Mosaic Co (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mos#NYSE">MOS</a>): -63.1 percent since 2011.</li>
<li>Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (USA) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pot#NYSE">POT</a>): -67.8 percent since 2011.</li>
<li>CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cf#NYSE">CF</a>): +5.04 percent since 2011.</li>
<li>Agrium Inc. (USA) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agu#NYSE">AGU</a>): +1.10 percent since 2011.</li>
</ul>
Agri-Finance Companies
<ul>
<li>Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agm#NYSE">AGM</a>): +233 percent since 2011.</li>
</ul>
Notwithstanding the drought, seed companies and agri-produce companies have fared well. The performance of pesticide and fertilizer companies were mixed during the period.
There is an argument that droughts serve to support stocks of companies that supply drought-resistant seeds. 
Monsanto, Syngenta and E I Du Pont De Nemours And Co (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dd#NYSE">DD</a>) are all said to have genetically modified seeds that can withstand drought.
There is another class of companies that boom during droughts, the ones that sell technology related to water efficiency and moisture monitoring systems.
<h3>Agri Stocks And Previous Droughts</h3>
During the Turn-of-the-century Drought of 1999&ndash;2008, these stocks turned in a lackluster showing only to launch into a strong rally toward the end of the drought.
<a href="https://ycharts.com/companies/LMNR/chart/#/?recessions=&amp;quoteLegend=&amp;displayTicker=false&amp;securitylistName=&amp;maxPoints=850&amp;title=&amp;startDate=01/01/1999&amp;legendOnChart=&amp;partner=&amp;format=indexed&amp;securityGroup=&amp;correlations=&amp;quotes=true&amp;calcs=include:true,id:price,,&amp;endDate=12/31/2008&amp;zoom=custom&amp;securities=include:true,id:LMNR,,include:true,id:CVGW,,include:true,id:MON,,include:true,id:MOS,,include:true,id:POT,,include:true,id:CF,,include:true,id:AGU,,include:true,id:SYT&amp;splitType=single&amp;scaleType=&amp;source=&amp;units=&amp;note=&amp;securitylistSecurityId="><img src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7799ea8a541a75af832292a92f08e349.png" alt="LMNR Chart" /></a> 
Source: Y Charts
Agricultural stocks could get a psychological boost from the news that the drought has abated, returning agricultural activity to their historic norms. Droughts, like an economic cycle, keep repeating, especially amid the global warning triggered by climate change. Therefore, one might be well advised to tread with caution when investing in agricultural stocks. As seen earlier, there are some sub-classes among this sector, which are relatively less immune to adverse weather conditions such as droughts and floods.
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/11/8686835/specter-of-trumps-agriculture-policies-prompt-jpmorgan-t"> Specter Of Trump's Agriculture Policies Prompt JPMorgan To Downgrade Archer Daniels </a> 
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/01/5130159/chinas-approval-could-make-agriculture-more-appealing"> China's Approval Could Make Agriculture More Appealing </a>

Education

Economics

CVGW

LMNR

Will Ag Stocks Flourish Now That California's 5-Year Drought Is Officially Over?

Farmers are poaching each other&rsquo;s migrant workers, rushing to develop robot field hands and abandoning some crops altogether because of a shortage of seasonal workers that poses yet another predicament for President Donald Trump.
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s going to be a collision of interests and we&rsquo;re already seeing it on the West Coast&rdquo; where Washington cherry farmers are luring Oregon&rsquo;s strawberry pickers with higher wages, said James Moore, a political scientist at Pacific University and an agriculture analyst.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s going to take a crisis in agriculture&rdquo; to get the president&rsquo;s attention, Moore said. &ldquo;Looking at our Syria policy, events can jump up and change what Trump said he was going to do.&rdquo;
Trump, consistently inconsistent and unclear about the issue of migrant farm workers, can&rsquo;t slash undocumented migrants without dealing a severe blow to the nation&rsquo;s agricultural economy, analysts say.
<h3>Trump Has 3 Options, None Good For Him</h3>
As if his young administration isn&rsquo;t crowded with enough quandaries, Trump has three choices when it comes to agriculture. Each of them carry the risk of alienating what&rsquo;s left of his <a href="http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/10/trump-unpopular-bombing-baby-killing-dictator-approval-rating.html">support</a>.
<ul>
<ol>
<li>He accepts the fact that exhaustive studies have proven <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w23125#fromrss">Americans won&rsquo;t work the fields</a> and will have to keep letting foreigners in at an even higher rate.</li>
<li>He angers Big Agriculture by restricting work visas, forcing farms to accelerate their costly moves toward glitchy robotic field hands &mdash; which still can&rsquo;t tell if an apricot is ripe.</li>
<li>The government and the market decide to increase food imports, which runs counter to Trump&rsquo;s protectionist desire to tax foreign goods.</li>
</ol>
</ul>
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s three-way choice: mechanize, import workers, or import the commodities,&rdquo; Philip Martin, professor emeritus at the University of California-Davis and one of the leading farm labor economists in the nation, told Benzinga.
&ldquo;The most likely scenario is some combination of more mechanization and more guest workers, but not more U.S. workers in the fields.&rdquo;
<h3>The Visa That&rsquo;s Vital To Big Ag</h3>
Although he has called for abolishing work visas for <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-position-on-visas">skilled foreign worker</a>s, Trump has been largely mum on a type of visa covering seasonal migrant workers: The H-2A.
The <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/temporary-workers/h-2a-temporary-agricultural-workers">H-2A visa</a> grants temporary work visas for up to three years, but it&rsquo;s controversial among both farmers and advocates for migrant workers.
Farmers have long complained about <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2015/03/05/The-H-2A-problem-Why-a-perfectly-legal-farmworker-visa-program-isnt-being-used-more/7521425481876/">red tape</a>; the worker must apply at a U.S. Consulate, and the prospective employer must prove that no American wants the job.
Advocates for migrant workers say the program is unfair because it binds them to a single employer and makes them more vulnerable to <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/03/trump-guestworker-h2a-visa-farmworkers-immigration">exploitation</a>, in effect a bond of servitude.
If Trump makes good on his promise to slash illegal immigration, he&rsquo;ll have to deal with the fact that more than half of the nation&rsquo;s farmworkers, according to Martin, are undocumented.
The irony is that the Trump clan itself has used the H-2A program to staff a winery. Son Eric <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jessicagarrison/trump-winery-seeks-even-more-foreign-workers?utm_term=.gwL4ROAk7#.quKyjx9mo">petitioned</a> the Labor Department in recent months to import 29 H-2A workers to tend his Virginia vineyard.
Despite the unhappiness with the program and because of the urgency of the labor shortage, workers certified as H-2A nearly tripled in the last 10 years, Martin said, from 59,100 certified in the fiscal year 2006 to 165,700 in fiscal 2016.
<h3>Slowdown In Migrant Workers Preceded Trump</h3>
The meltdown in badly needed yet unauthorized workers from Mexico began with the 2008 recession.
That period, said Martin, is similar to patterns in the 1960s, when the administration of former President John F. Kennedy slashed the numbers of migrant workers and found that Americans didn&rsquo;t rush to replace them.
Today&rsquo;s seasonal migrant has aged demographically and is more likely to live close to where they work. If they are undocumented, they are unlikely to get their paperwork sorted out for fear of arrest.
They are just as unlikely to go home for fear the anti-immigrant sentiment will keep them from returning.
&ldquo;What&rsquo;s going to happen when they rip these people out of our economy?&rdquo; asked Ray Johnson, executive director of the authoritative Wine Business Institute at Sonoma State University&#39;s School of Business &amp; Economics.
&ldquo;That worker is no longer a migrant. You have a substantial number who settle in the community and they might not have the right documentation. Would I risk all of that if I did not have the right paperwork?&rdquo;
As the sole visa dedicated to seasonal migrant workers, the H-2A visa has advantages.
Johnson recalled a recent conversation with members of the Dutton family, prominent vinters in wine country who have embraced mechanization and the H-2A. They brought up 80 men from Mexico, nice and easy with no legal hassles.
&ldquo;There are successes that are working right now and people don&rsquo;t want to see them screwed up,&rdquo; Johnson said.
<h3>Necessity, The Mother Of Invention</h3>
As Darwin&rsquo;s Law proved, animals must adapt or die. Martin outlined how farmers are dealing with the labor crunch and the looming monolith of uncertainty that is Trump:
<ul>
<li>Using more modern machinery to pick and plant. The problem with this method, though, is fruits and vegetables ripen unevenly, and machines aren&rsquo;t smart enough to decide if a kumquat is ready to go. Yet.</li>
<li>Bioengineering, or modifying the farm product itself. Dwarf trees can produce apples and cherries that can be harvested without ladders, increasing worker productivity.</li>
<li>Chemicals: Already used to harvest tree nuts, chemicals are used that allow workers to merely shake the trees and the ripened nut falls to the ground.</li>
<li>Switching crops. California is being blanketed with almond crops (see: Chemicals). Smaller raisin growers that can&rsquo;t afford the mechanical aids large vineyards use &mdash; ripening grapes on the vines and then using machines to shake them off &mdash; are selling out to larger growers and switching to nuts.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Big AG Vs. GOP?</h3>
Moore sounds fascinated by the hypothetical day when hardscrabble farmers and the suits at Big Ag might team up to rue the day they supported Trump.
Moore even has a theory about where Ground Zero of Big Food&rsquo;s meltdown could come. The <a href="http://www.thecalifornian.com/story/news/2017/02/21/salinas-valley-ag-industry-takes-hit-storm/98219860/">Salinas Valley</a>, which supplies the world with most of its broccoli and lettuce.
The $9 billion industry, pretty much in California&rsquo;s Monterey County, could be the proverbial canary in the coal mine. If it goes, Big Ag has its housing crisis.
And no matter how big a wall he builds, Trump loses in an eyeball-to-eyeball fight with Big Ag and its many recipients of campaign contributions in Congress.
Media reports have focused on efforts by an energized Immigration and Customs Enforcement&#39;s cadre of agents kicking down doors at the border, but Moore says it&rsquo;s just the media glomming on to the enforcement angle to sync with the Trump era.
In reality, ICE is overmatched by an economic imperative, not to mention highly motivated and quite overwhelming numbers who have leverage on a global scale.
&ldquo;There aren&rsquo;t enough ICE agents to catch all the undocumented workers,&rdquo; Moore said.
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/17/03/9225273/heres-every-sanctuary-city-that-trumps-doj-just-threatened-to-defund">Here's Every 'Sanctuary City' Trump's DoJ Just Threatened To Defund</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/17/02/9080684/why-deutsche-bank-prefers-corecivic-over-geo-group">Why Deutsche Bank Prefers CoreCivic Over GEO Group</a>

Politics

Exclusives

Interview

In A Pickle: Big Agriculture Anxiously Awaits Trump's Policy On Migrant Workers

Investors are still scrambling to best position themselves in 2017 under a new presidential administration. Meanwhile, one of the sectors that have perhaps fallen under the radar is the farming sector.
<h3>Agriculture And Trump</h3>
CNBC's Jane Wells <A href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000578096">took a look at what can be in store</a> for farmers and farm investors when President-elect <a href="http://benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> officially takes office early next year.
Wells noted that agriculture is one of the few industries where the United States has a trade surplus, so farmers are hoping that Trump won't interfere with their industry. Nevertheless, 2016 was a difficult year for farmers, as there has been a global glut in the agriculture market.
Cattle futures have started to rebound from their October lows but still remain at low levels, which could pose problems for farmers if the commodity does not improve.
Brett Crosby, a Wyoming-based rancher, told CNBC there are some concerns among farmers that Trump could make changes to trade agreements that will impact their business. For example, a renegotiation of the NAFTA trade deal could impact exports out of the United States and into Canada and Mexico.
Meanwhile, Trump has yet to appoint an agriculture secretary nominee. It has yet to be seen if his appointee will want to crack down on tax-payer subsidized crop insurance.
<h3>Does Trump 'Owe' Farmers?</h3>
Wells further noted that she talked with a grain farmer in Chicago and the CEO of an ethanol company who believe farmers "put Trump over the top and [he] owes us."
Crosby doesn't feel the same and believes that many American voters chose Trump because of his pitch to the public that he doesn't owe any special interest or lobby groups any favors for helping him reach the White House.
"My hope is that [Trump] continues to follow the path of deregulating operations and businesses to make them more competitive in global markets, rather than going down the path of protectionism," the rancher <a href="http://www.agweb.com/mobile/farmjournal/article/cnbc-farmers-say-trump-owes-them-naa-ben-potter/">told Wells earlier this month.</a> "It's more important to see what he does than what he says."

iPath DJ-UBSffee Subindex Total Return ETN

Farms Remain A Question Mark Under A Trump Administration

Despite all the commotion about this being a good year for commodities, the iShares S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gsg#NYSE">GSG</a>) is flat year-to-date. That condition is unlikely to persist after the results of Tuesday&#39;s presidential election start trickling in.
<h3>The Climate</h3>
As has been widely documented, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/10/8594919/heres-why-you-should-buy-the-dip-in-gold-etfs">gold and perhaps some other precious metals</a> are believed to me the only potential near-term beneficiaries of Republican challenger Donald Trump claiming the White House. A legitimate case can also be made that given her harsh rhetoric aimed at the coal industry and the Democrats&#39; lengthy history of hostility toward the oil industry, the oil patch does not want to see Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton win the presidency.
History can be instructive for investors looking to make commodities bets following the election. In fact, gold investors might just want Clinton to win whether they know it or not.
<h3>It's Not That Simple</h3>
&ldquo;While volatility and fear generally have supported gold around election uncertainty (in fact, this year through Oct. gold in the index is posting its 6th best year ever going back to 1979 (+19.3 percent) and is on pace for its best year since 2011,) gold does significantly better under the historical Democratic presidencies, adding 24.3 percent on average in Democratic terms versus Republican ones since 1978,&rdquo; according to a recent note by <a href="http://www.indexologyblog.com/2016/11/02/how-commodities-might-do-under-clinton-trump/">S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices</a>.
GSG tracks the S&amp;P GSCI Total Return Index, which offers investors exposure to energy, industrial and precious metals, agricultural, and livestock commodities. Again, history suggests mixed performances for various commodities when Republicans control the White House.
&ldquo;Like gold, most commodities do better on average under Democratic rule, but the majority of highs and lows for commodities are under the Republican presidencies. Of the 24 commodities, 14 have had their best performance and 18 have had their worst performance with Republican presidents. However, 17 single commodities have had better performance on average under Democratic Presidents,&rdquo; noted S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.
Some agricultural commodities, namely corn, wheat, Kansas wheat and soybeans, perform better when Republicans occupy the White House.
So, it could be good news for the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) if Trump wins, as that ETF allocates nearly<a href="https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/financial-professional/etfs/product-detail?productId=DBA&amp;ticker=DBA&amp;title=powershares-db-agriculture-fund"> 35 percent of its combined weight</a> to corn, soybeans and wheat.

How The Next President Could Affect Commodities ETFs

Analyst Color

Analyst Ratings

JP Morgan Cautious On US Agriculture, Says Risk Of Increasing Planted Acreage From Recent Price Rally May Compound Existing Oversupply Concern

Analysts at 720 Global believe that they have identified a coming transition that could be very profitable for traders. This transition has nothing to do with the stock market or the business world. It has to do with the weather.

	720 Global believes that the possible transition from a historic El Nino to a La Nina weather pattern could have a major impact on the prices of soy, wheat and corn in the US. La Nina patterns tend to result in higher chances of warmer, drier summers in the Midwest ad Plains states, which typically leads to weaker harvests and higher prices for these three major agriculture commodities.

	&ldquo;The data is very compelling, however investing in corn, wheat or soybeans is not for the average investor,&rdquo; 720 Global wrote. &ldquo;To help overcome the difficulties and traps that typically torment inexperienced commodity investors, we sought an ETF that might replicate such an investment in the commodity markets.&rdquo;

	Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/02/6421796/how-the-u-s-can-avoid-recession">How The U.S. Can Avoid Recession</a>

	According to 720 Global, that investment is PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>). Although the fund is an acceptable size and liquidity and has 37.5 percent exposure to corn, soybeans and wheat, the report stresses that investors should be fully aware that it is nowhere close to a pure play. In fact, 62.5 percent of the fund is comprised of cotton, sugar, coffee and other agriculture commodities.

	Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.

The Transition From El Nino To La Nina Could Send Commodities Up 30%

720 Global&#39;s Mike Lebowitz analyzed ONI Index data from 1950 to present and found 9 instances where the index flipped from Moderate/Strong El Nino and Weak La Nina readings. Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures all rose on average during those 9 periods when ONI Index flipped from El Nino to La Nina, 38.25 percent, 39.56 percent, and 31.94 percent respectively.

	Period Data:&nbsp;http://www.benzinga.com/files/u52055/capture_59.png

	Price Change In Percent During Those Periods:&nbsp;http://www.benzinga.com/files/u52055/capture_60.png

Movers

ProShares DB Agri Fund Up ~1%, 720 Global Note Out Highlighting Possibility For The ETF To Continue To Gain

<ul>
<li>Corn prices experienced a steep decline this year, falling from above $440 to under $375.</li>
<li>Soybeans have also experienced a rough year, declining from around $1,030 to under $880.</li>
<li>So, one question arises: Is there a way for investors to capitalize from the continued decline?</li>
</ul>

After hitting historic highs earlier this year, corn and soybeans prices experienced steep declines as &ldquo;better-than-expected crop yields, a flight of investment money out of commodities and the prospect of a global recession that will cut demand&rdquo; led to an oversupply of the products, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6092444&amp;page=1">ABC News</a> explained.
Consequently, many investors wonder how they could profit from these declines without actually being exposed to these quite volatile commodities.
Binary options might offer an interesting alternative.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/15/12/6053993/natural-gas-at-10-year-low-one-way-to-play-further-downside">Natural Gas At 10-Year Low: One Way To Play Further Downside</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>What Are Binary Options?</h3>
Investing via binary options is just that: Playing a binary event. &ldquo;Binary options are limited risk contracts based on a simple yes/no market proposition like will the markets go up by the end of the trading week,&rdquo; binary options trading site Nadex <a href="http://www.nadex.com/trade-binary-options.html">explained</a>.
<h3>How To Trade Crops With Binary Options</h3>
Through binary options, people can invest in corn and soybean futures with relatively low collateral. Below are examples of how to trade corn and soybeans using binary options.
In the following example, the underlying corn futures market is trading around 375 and a trader thinks they will continue to decline. Thus, he chooses to Sell a binary option that looks something like Corn (Mar) &gt; 375.0 (3PM).
If this imaginary investor believes corn futures would be trading above 375 at 3PM, it would have been best for him to Buy the binary options.
The case is very similar for soybeans, except for the fact that the contract would look something like this: Soybeans (Jan) &gt; 877.0 (3PM) &ndash; in this example, soybeans trade at 877. If the investor believed soybeans would trade above 877, Buying the binary options would be the way to go. If, instead, he/she believed soybeans would continue to decline, he would be better off Selling the contracts.
Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.
Image Credit: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/soy-soybean-plants-plantation-964327/">Public Domain</a>

Short Ideas

How Are Corn And Soybean Prices Doing? Here's A Way To Play These Commodities With Low Collateral

Days of Awe
Yesterday was the evening of Yom Kippur, a time for atonement when each person's fate for the coming year is inscribed into the Book of Life.
As such, with the impending verdict sealed, one is meant to amend his or her behavior and seek forgiveness for wrong doings.
Can the market amend its behavior? Who does the market need to seek forgiveness from and for what wrong doings?
The market doesn't care what any of us think, yet on the other hand, as group psychology indeed has an impact, in Monday night's commentary I urged folks and investors to "Please try to dwell on the positives and embark on a new collective, self-fulfilling prophecy to reduce fear."
There is a popular market adage that states, "Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur."
If the market follows any credo set by the High Holy days, what might be the market's fate in its Book of Life?
The First Chapter Could Be About The Phases In Commodities. 
(<a href="https://marketgauge.leadpages.co/mmm-advantage-1-dv-20150924/?ref=mdaily" data-mce-href="https://marketgauge.leadpages.co/mmm-advantage-1-dv-20150924/?ref=mdaily">I'll cover how to trade market phases in this week's webinar</a>)
2 ETFs I Track
Unless you are new to this daily (and if you are, welcome and thank you!) you know I have been waiting patiently for these ETFs to confirm a bottom in place.
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) major holdings are cocoa, corn, live cattle, soybeans and sugar.
PowerShares DB Com Indx Trckng Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dbc#NYSE">DBC</a>) main components are gasoline, crude oil, gold, some corn, aluminum, soybeans, wheat and zinc.
Beginning with DBC, the most salient commodity is oil. USO has an average daily volume of over 29 million. Highly speculated, it is currently sitting just below its 50 DMA awaiting a confirmation of a Recovery phase, which it hasn't had since June.
In August 2014, USO broke the weekly moving averages. A final flush of the down move might have occurred the week ending August 28th.
Since CORN is also a holding in DBC, a move in that ETF over 23.80 on a weekly basis could be the ticket to ride.
DBA, with Cocoa as its main holdings, has 2 ETFs NIB and CHOC. Both are barely traded. Technically, however, both are in solid bullish phases. Should the other agricultural commodities come out of their slumber, DBA, especially with a weekly close over 21.52, looks attractive.
In the spirit of Yom Kippur, all investors ought to review their goals and objectives. Perhaps it is time to begin your portfolio anew. Raw materials are after all, the staff of life!
S&amp;P 500 (SPY) 190 has daily chart support with 195 now the hurdle to clear.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke 114 which means unless this gets back over 115.40, could see 112 then 110 next
Dow (DIA) 162.15 turned out to be a good pivotal spot. Since it closed above, look for a move over 164.50 if good, otherwise, next support at 157 area
Nasdaq (QQQ) 104 was a near term target. It closed just above so perhaps, we will see another test of 105.55 before we see lower prices
Volatility Index (VIX) Closed right on the 200 DMA.
XLF (Financials) 22.40 closest support. Good if it clears back over 23.20
KRE (Regional Banks) 36.35 best underlying support. Note that if this can continue to hold over 40.15 that is a decent sign
SMH (Semiconductors) Over 50.85 would be a tempting long swing buy. Otherwise, expect 48-48.50 support
IYT (Transportation) 142.50 pivotal with 146.10 overhead resistance and 140 next support
IBB (Biotechnology) 340 pivotal now resistance
XRT (Retail) A monthly close over 45.38 keeps hope alive. Otherwise, looking at 44.00 next closest support
IYR (Real Estate) Still has a shot if can hold 70.85 area
ITB (US Home Construction) From riches to rags although it did hold the 200 DMA
GLD (Gold Trust) 110.50 really good resistance 106.90-107.20 key support
USO (US Oil Fund) Looks like its trying hard to bottom-not ready to buy just yet though
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed phase change to bearish-sloppy trading
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change to warning (over the 200 DMA)
CORN (Corn) Over 23.80 on a weekly basis good
DBC (DB Commodity Index) Like better if can clear/hold over 15.25

PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

Are Commodities Basing Out?

The <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/agriculture">agricultural business sector</a> of the market has been slow to keep pace with the pronounced growth in the major indices over the last year. The flagging prices of agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat and soybeans have capped the gains in fertilizer and other supply companies that are heavily tied to crop production.
<h3>
	Market Vectors Agribusiness</h3>

	Fortunately, those misfortunes may be soon be put to rest as the price of the Market Vectors Agribusiness (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/moo#NYSE">MOO</a>) is testing its 52-week highs. MOO has more than $1.5 billion invested in 58 global agriculture companies that derive a significant portion of their profits from this industry.

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/01/5130159/chinas-approval-could-make-agriculture-more-appealing">China&#39;s Approval Could Make Agriculture More Appealing</a></bzrelatedlink>

	The portfolio is structured with 50 percent of the assets in the U.S. and the remaining half peppered throughout international stock markets.

	Top holdings in MOO include:
<ul>
<li>
		Syngenta Ag (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/syt#NYSE">SYT</a>)</li>
<li>
		Monsanto Company (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mon#NYSE">MON</a>)</li>
<li>
		Deere &amp; Company (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/de#NYSE">DE</a>)</li>
<li>
		Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pot#NYSE">POT</a>)</li>
</ul>
<div id="preview-wrapper">
<div id="file-preview">
		<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/imce?app=nomatter%7Cimceload%40imceInline.load#" title=""><img alt="moo_0.png" height="284" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u79448/moo_0.png" width="460" /></a></div>
</div>

	Potash in particular is set to report earnings this week, and is trading higher in anticipation of a jump in profitability versus the same quarter last year. Further positive earnings announcements that surprise consensus forecasts in this industry will likely help boost MOO above its 2014 highs.

	In addition, a reversal or consolidation in the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>) would likely be seen as a positive catalyst. This ETF tracks a diversified basket of commodity futures contracts in the agriculture sector and recently fell to new one-year lows.
<h3>
	PowerShares Global Agriculture Portfolio</h3>

	The PowerShares Global Agriculture Port(ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pagg#NYSE">PAGG</a>) is another similar portfolio of stocks engaged in farming-related activities. This ETF tracks a comparable composite of stocks as MOO, but has a more pronounced weighting towards international and mid-cap companies. PAGG has $52 million in total assets and charges an expense ratio of 0.75 percent.
<h3>
	iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers</h3>

	Lastly, the iShares Inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vegi#NYSE">VEGI</a>) provides a highly diversified mix of 132 securities with a reasonable expense ratio of just 0.39 percent. This index has more ground to make up in order to recapture its 2014 highs, but has been showing similar positive momentum as MOO and PAGG over the last several weeks.

	This industry will certainly be one to watch in 2015, as it battles to overcome some of the headwinds that capped gains last year.

PAGG

VEGI

3 Agriculture ETFs Seeking To Breakout

This piece contains the opinions of the author that do not reflect the opinions of Benzinga.com.

	Here are 10 trends to watch out for in 2015:

	1. Technology has made finding oil and gas much more accurate and cost-effective everywhere. Large or luxury auto sales will continue regardless of MPG ratings. Energy independence is a real option in the US and the Americas.

	2. People are tired of commuting and will work from home given the option. Thus, less oil and gas is needed due to telecommuting. Lifestyle is becoming more important to working families. Being able to work from home and raise a family could become a civil rights issue.

	3. Citizens will take necessary steps to avoid modernized taxes or inner-city taxation. People will buy and build right outside of states such as: New York, California, or outside of cities such as Chicago, Boston, LA or San Fran. States like Texas, Tennessee, Florida and other Federal tax free jurisdiction will gain momentum while acquiring the bulk of the baby boomer retirees who want to stretch their incomes.

	4. People will live where there are high quality schools or parents may: a) home school their kids, b) send their children to private schools, c) use tutors, or d) use online study.

	5. Cheaper oil may reduce the GDP of countries and super-states such as Nigeria, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other active regions such as Texas and Alaska. Cheap gas has spurred some consumer spending, but cheaper gas may reduce tax revenue for governments, states and cities.

	6. The demographics of fast growing regions such as India, China and Indonesia/Malaysia should continue to drive up energy and commodity costs for the next 40 years. More college grads in the US may leave and work offshore than ever before.

	7. Colleges and Universities may crumble in size or fail unless value is provided. There is an ever expanding number of free options: college courses, MOOCS&nbsp;(Massive Courses), open courses, free online diplomas, free or almost free degree options and more. 2015 may be the easiest year in 40 years to get into a graduate school for law or business.

	8. The dollar and stock market are temporarily strong and more people will travel internationally as a result of this. Low interest rates and cheap energy are contributing to short-term economic power, building, buying and hiring.

	9. Conventional security and conventional policing is changing toward technology quickly. Look for more cameras, more drones, more robots, more tracking, more surveillance, and more uses of stun or paralyzing technology.

	10. Branchless Banking may shift to Cyber Cashless Exchanges that are linked, such as: Amazon (a- coin), Alibaba (b-coin) Ebay (e-coin), Google (g-coin) and PayPal (p-coin), and other related companies. It&#39;s also possible big players like Visa, Amex, Discover, and Schwab will do deals with companies like Amazon and Apple to provide branchless banking worldwide.
<h3>
	Investments To Watch</h3>

	Online Education: DeVry Education Group Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dv#NYSE">DV</a>), Apollo Education Group Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/apol#NASDAQ">APOL</a>)

	Surveillance: Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Google Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>)

	Finance: Charles Schwab Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/schw#NYSE">SCHW</a>)

	Agriculture: PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dba#NYSE">DBA</a>)

	Consumer: eBay Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ebay#NASDAQ">EBAY</a>), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)

	Advertising and Media: Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/yhoo#NASDAQ">YHOO</a>), Google

	Defense: TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tasr#NASDAQ">TASR</a>)

	Dr. jur. George Mentz is a world recognized self-help and wealth management commentator who has several professional development education companies which have trained thousands of professionals in over 40 countries. Prof. Mentz, an international attorney, founder of the Global Academy of Finance and Management &reg; <a href="http://www.gafm.com" title="www.gafm.com">www.gafm.com</a> , has been a keynote speaker globally in the USA, China, Asia, Arabia, USA, Mexico, Switzerland, and in the West Indies. Mentz has consulted with governments, world leaders and Fortune 500 companies. Mentz has published bestsellers in the following categories: Money and Monetary Policy, Management Science, Mysticism, Religion, Psychology, and in Spirituality. Dr. Mentz can be contacted for speaking engagements at <a href="http://www.gmentz.com" title="www.gmentz.com">www.gmentz.com</a> or <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/georgementz" title="http://www.linkedin.com/in/georgementz">http://www.linkedin.com/in/georgementz</a> *No tax investment or legal advice provided herein. Please consult with a licensed professional in your jurisdiction before making any important financial or legal decision. Mentz is a licensed counselor of law USA. gafm.org

	Image credit: <a href="http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile-Payment#mediaviewer/File:Mobile_Payment.jpg">VeroPay</a>, Wikimedia

Opinion

AAPL

APOL

EBAY

GOOG

GOOGL

MSFT

SCHW

TASR

YHOO

Opinion: Here Are 10 Trends (And 11 Investments) To Watch In 2015

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/blankfein-called-it-now-the-whole-world-is-watching-commodities?sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg </a>this weekend reported on the boom that is taking shape in the commodities markets.

What Happened: Investors are moving from the bull market in stocks to areas further afield in search of returns in a very-low interest rate environment.

&quot;Commodities haven&rsquo;t been this sexy since the mid-2000s, when China was stockpiling everything from copper to cotton,&quot; Bloomberg reports.

The story points to several developments:

<ul>
	<li>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) recommending a move away from bonds toward materials</li>
	<li>Hedge fund bets at their highest levels in a decade, totalling nearly $120 billion</li>
	<li>Agricultural markets also up more than 30% in the last decade</li>
	<li>Corn at a seven-year high</li>
	<li>Soybeans and wheat at their highest prices since 2014</li>
	<li>Copper having the potential to rally&nbsp;20% to more than $10,000 a metric ton, according to Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Bank of America</li>
</ul>

Quick Ways To Jump In: If this makes you itchy to get in on the action, then here are three ETFs and two copper funds that can give you exposure to metals and agriculture, which we&nbsp;gathered by asking around the Benzinga staff for some quick ways to place bets.

Note that this is by no means a comprehensive list but some simple ways to buy if you believe these commodities will continue their rise.

<ul>
	<li>Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/DBA#NYSE">DBA</a>) With $691.8 million in assets under management, this is one of the largest ETFs that holds actual agricultural commodities. Its 26-week return rate stands at&nbsp;20.79%, according to ETF Database.&nbsp;Its share price is up&nbsp;20.79% over the past six months and closed last week at&nbsp;$16.56.</li>
	<li>For an ETF that holds&nbsp;agricultural stocks, the largest is&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/MOO#NYSE">MOO</a>). It has $914.5 million in assets under management and &quot;the&nbsp;best ticker symbol out there,&quot; says Spencer Israel, producer of Benzinga&#39;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket-prep/">PreMarket Prep</a>.&nbsp;It has a 26-week return rate of&nbsp;31.32%, according to ETF Database.&nbsp;It is up&nbsp;29.89% over the past six months and closed last week at&nbsp;$82.14.</li>
	<li>The VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/REMX#NYSE">REMX</a>) holds stocks of companies that produce rare earth&nbsp;metals&nbsp;such as titanium, molybdenum, cerium, manganese&nbsp;and tungsten. It has&nbsp;$421.1 million in&nbsp;assets under management. The ETF&#39;s 26-week return rate is 89.57%, and its share price closed last week at&nbsp;$72.38, up 87.90% over six months.</li>
	<li>For pure copper plays, also look into the&nbsp;Barclays iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/JJC#NYSE">JJC</a>), which is an exchange-traded note, and the&nbsp;United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>), an exchange-traded product.</li></ul>
Image source: Pexels

While the pundits debate whether or not inflation is rising, the markets have spoken. And the answer is a resounding &ldquo;yes!&rdquo;

This inflation has caused commodity-based ETFs to rocket higher. This includes the Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/CORN#NYSE">CORN</a>) and the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/stock/DBA#NYSE">DBA</a>).

The Teucrium Corn Fund invests in corn futures. Since August the price of corn has doubled and&nbsp;CORN has gained almost 20% in the past month.

<img alt="corn.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/corn.png" style="height:400px; width:640px" />

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund&nbsp;invests in a wide range of agricultural futures. They include corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, cocoa&nbsp;and cattle.

The ETF has gained almost 10% over the past month.

<img alt="dba.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/dba.png" style="height:400px; width:640px" />

The inflation data released Tuesday&nbsp;should convince investors that inflation isn&rsquo;t just transitory. The headline Consumer Price Index, measured year over year, was up 5.4% in June.

The core rate, which doesn&rsquo;t include food or energy, was up 4.5%. This blew away the estimates of 3.8% and was the largest move higher since September 1991.

Fortunately, some ETFs can be used to hedge stock portfolios against this inflation risk. They can even be used to profit in inflationary environments. One of them is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBA#NYSE">DBA</a>).

This fund invests in agricultural commodities like wheat and soybeans. If their prices move higher, so should DBA.

<img alt="dba_0.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/dba_0.png" style="height:400px; width:640px" />

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Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Frequently Asked Questions

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Current Stock Price for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)?

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Is Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) going to split?

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