Gary Black Says Tesla Investors Are Taking Elon Musk's Earnings Call Projections as 'Gospel' Despite Stock's 'Extreme Valuation Metrics'

Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black warned Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors against treating Elon Musk’s ambitious third-quarter earnings call projections as established outcomes, arguing that enthusiasm for autonomous driving and robotics cannot alone justify the company’s elevated valuation.

Black Warns Investors Against Blind Optimism

"$TSLA investors are accepting as gospel aspirational targets served up by Elon and his leadership team on the $TSLA earnings call to justify extreme valuation metrics (2027 P/E 175x, 2027 EV/EBITDA 73x)," Black said on Thursday on X.

"I trust everyone realizes that management’s targets are just one element of doing 360 degree investment research," Black added. "Equally important are competitors’ targets and actions, customer feedback, and supplier activity."

Black previously warned that loving Tesla’s business does not necessarily justify its stock price, emphasizing valuation discipline even for companies with substantial growth potential. He also questioned Tesla’s long-term autonomous driving advantage, warning that competing services could eventually weaken its technological differentiation.

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Tesla Reports Surging Full Self-Driving Adoption

Tesla’s third-quarter results showed that over 75% of North American vehicle deliveries included Full Self-Driving subscription sign-ups, compared with approximately 55% in the previous quarter. The company reported more than 1.7 million paid FSD customers globally, including subscriptions and previously purchased software licenses.

However, Black previously questioned the reported attachment rate, raising concerns about how introductory subscription offers affected the figures. Meanwhile, Deepwater’s Gene Munster argued that FSD adoption had reached an inflection point.

Tesla’s Investment Plans

Tesla lowered its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from more than $25 billion to approximately $20 billion, raising questions about its AI and robotics investments.

Black’s concerns echo his earlier warning about Tesla’s elevated valuation, even as investors anticipate future revenue from autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.

Price Action: TSLA stock was up 1.13% at $378.80 during pre-market trading Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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