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Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is a leading Big Pharma, and its cancer treatment Keytruda continues to deliver sales growth, making up more than half of total revenue. The drug’s patent expires in a few years, however, and Merck is working to make up for the expected revenue loss.
In this article, we’ll look at MRK’s latest share price, Wall Street sentiment, multiyear price forecasts, and the key factors that are playing a critical role in the company’s path going forward.
Current Stock Overview
Market Cap: $213.41 billion
Trailing P/E Ratio: 13.79
Forward P/E Ratio: 9.13
1-Year Return: -19%
2025 YTD: -14%
Shares of Merck are currently trading around $86 after falling nearly 20% from a 52-week high of $105 set last October. The stock has been trading in a narrow range since April after a bumpy ride down.
Merck posted Q3 earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ estimates, and sales of Keytruda exceeded $8 billion for the first time in a quarter, rising 10% year over year.
The cancer treatment makes up more than half of total revenue, which is risky. Any decrease in demand can hurt results, and Merck will need to make up for the revenue shortfall when Keytruda’s U.S. patent expires in 2028. The company is working to cut $3 billion in costs by the end of 2027.
MRK has a consensus Buy rating from 28 analysts, according to Benzinga. The average price target is $116.70 per share, which suggests a moderate upside from current levels. The highest price target is $155, and the lowest is $85. The three most recent ratings suggest a near-term average target of $91.67, suggesting an 8% upside.
Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions & Methodology for Forecasting
Year | Bearish Prediction | Average Prediction | Bullish Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 | $75.34 | $21.04 | $97.02 |
2026 | $79.82 | $96.39 | $120.77 |
2027 | $108.37 | $116.68 | $127.92 |
2028 | $103.90 | $127.74 | $143.73 |
2029 | $78.23 | $90.69 | $108.57 |
2030 | $83.22 | $100.46 | $125.73 |
The forecast range in this table is based on algorithmic projections provided by CoinCodex. These models use historical price trends, volatility patterns, and moving averages to estimate future stock prices over multiple time horizons.
Bull & Bear Case
Merck’s Keytruda cancer treatment continues to deliver, but investors worry that the company is too dependent on a single product.
Bull Case
- Keytruda is Merck’s top product, and it’s still exhibiting high revenue growth
- Merck’s product pipeline suggests that revenue diversification is possible
- The pharmaceutical company has been in business for more than 130 years, demonstrating significant stability and consistent dividend growth
Bear Case
- More than half of Merck’s revenue is tied to a single product
- Keytruda’s patent expires in 2028, opening the door to more competition and loss of revenue
- Overall revenue and net income growth haven’t been notably strong in recent years
Stock Price Prediction for 2025
CoinCodex projects a moderate gain for MRK at the upper end of its price range. The average price lowest price targets don’t suggest much movement. The stock may have enough strength for gains if the company makes significant progress with any of the products in its pipeline.
Stock Price Prediction for 2026
CoinCodex suggests moderate advances are also possible for MRK in 2026 with sizable gains at the high end of the forecast. Rising Keytrude sales, combined with new products positively impacting revenue growth, may fuel price increases.
Stock Price Prediction for 2030
CoinCodex foresees MRK stock rallying in 2030. While new products can lead to new growth opportunities, this guidance requires Keytruda to grow and remain competitive once its patents expire.
Investment Considerations
Merck is a longstanding pharma company that is an appealing choice for dividend income investors looking for a high-yield stock. However, its low growth rates and heavy dependence on a single drug may cause growth investors to steer away.
Shares have been beaten up over the last year, which may present a buying opportunity for value investors.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRK stock a good long-term investment?
MRK stock may be a good long-term investment due to its significant market share in the pharma industry. CoinCodex projects a moderate upside by 2030.
What is the current consensus rating for MRK stock?
MRK currently has a consensus rating of Hold that comes from 28 analysts.
Does MRK stock pay a dividend?
Yes. MRK stock currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.81 per share with a 3.74% yield. The company has increased its payout 14 years in a row.
About Marc Guberti
Marc Guberti is an investing writer passionate about helping people learn more about money management, investing and finance. He has more than 10 years of writing experience focused on finance and digital marketing. His work has been published in U.S. News & World Report, USA Today, InvestorPlace and other publications.
