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Carrier Global Corp (CARR) is actively simplifying its massive heating, ventilation and air conditioning operations by shedding non-core businesses and investing the proceeds in high-growth areas. Investors can anticipate a positive shift for its focused growth story after a period of post-divestiture consolidation and market volatility.
In this article, we’ll examine price-target forecasts through 2030, analyze Wall Street’s latest sentiment, and break down the bullish and bearish outlooks shaping CARR’s risk/reward proposition.
Current CARR Stock Overview
- Market Cap: $45.56 billion
- Trailing P/E: 33.81
- Forward P/E: 17.64
- 1 Year Return: -27%
- YTD Return: -20%
According to Benzinga, Wall Street currently maintains a consensus Buy rating on Carrier Global Corp with an average price target of about $74. The most optimistic target is set at $94, and the most conservative target is at $59.
Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions
Year | Bullish Prediction | Average Prediction | Bearish Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 | $55.13 | $52.5 | $49.79 |
2026 | $52.22 | $41.14 | $33.93 |
2027 | $58.93 | $48.77 | $40.55 |
2028 | $81.54 | $65.21 | $53.13 |
2029 | $79.5 | $63.68 | $48.86 |
2030 | $51.14 | $40.29 | $33.25 |
2031 | $57.86 | $47.94 | $39.76 |
2032 | $80.12 | $64.12 | $52.15 |
2033 | $78.11 | $62.45 | $47.96 |
2040 | $77.2 | $61.91 | $50.25 |
2050 | $45.33 | $36.51 | $30.3 |
The forecast range in this table is based on algorithmic projections provided by CoinCodex. These models use historical price trends, volatility patterns, and moving averages to estimate future stock prices over multiple time horizons.
Bull & Bear Case
The bullish argument for Carrier is rooted in the success of its post-divestiture strategy to focus on premium, high-margin HVAC and refrigeration. The bearish outlook centers on cyclical downturns in its residential segment and execution risks.
Bull Case
- Demand for Carrier's commercial HVAC solutions, particularly in high-growth verticals like data center cooling, is soaring, with orders tripling year-to-date in that segment.
- Following the divestiture of five non-core businesses and the acquisition of Viessmann Climate Solutions, the company has transformed into a focused, pure-play leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, driving higher organic growth and margin expansion.
- Carrier is consistently achieving double-digit growth in its aftermarket services business that offers high margins, provides predictable revenue, and acts as a financial stabilizer against volatile equipment sales.
- The Viessmann acquisition significantly bolsters Carrier’s presence in the lucrative European market for sustainable residential heating, especially high-efficiency heat pumps, directly leveraging the continent's aggressive decarbonization mandates.
- The company has earmarked capital for strategic share repurchases, debt reduction, and small, tuck-in acquisitions, signaling a clear commitment to shareholder value creation.
- Carrier has successfully mitigated tariff costs, primarily through supplier negotiations, pricing actions, and supply chain adjustments like dual sourcing and localization, preventing tariffs from becoming a major drag on profitability.
Bear Case
- Sales volume in Carrier’s Climate Solutions Americas segment, which includes residential HVAC, has significantly declined due to cautious consumer spending and high interest rates, slowing the housing and replacement markets.
- Failing to achieve expected revenue and cost synergies could lead to higher-than-expected integration costs and distraction from core business operations.
- Volume has notably declined in the company’s Light Commercial segment, and it may continue if broader economic uncertainty discourages small to medium-sized businesses from undertaking significant HVAC replacements or upgrades.
- The HVAC industry faces significant challenges and competitive risks due to upcoming refrigerant transition mandates, such as the 2025 A2L change, which necessitates costly and massive product re-engineering.
CARR Stock Price Prediction for 2025
According to CoinCodex, Carrier stock could trade in a moderate channel in 2025. This forecast suggests that the market will continue to grapple with conflicting signals of strong growth in specialized commercial segments, like data center cooling, versus the anticipated cyclical weakness in residential and light commercial markets.
Investors should monitor Carrier's ability to successfully deploy its significant capital from divestitures, which should provide support, while it simultaneously manages margin pressure from lower sales volume in consumer-facing segments.
CARR Stock Price Prediction for 2026
Carrier is projected by CoinCodex to experience a wide trading range in 2026. This volatile outlook is likely fueled by the timing of two critical factors: the full integration cycle of the Viessmann acquisition and the lingering impact of global economic uncertainty on core construction markets.
If residential and light commercial segments experience a deeper-than-expected cyclical correction, the stock could trend toward the lower end of the range. Even though Carrier has mitigation strategies for cost pressures, prolonged tariffs on imported materials or sustained supply chain disruption could delay margin recovery.
CARR Stock Price Prediction for 2030
CoinCodex projects that Carrier stock will continue trading in a lower range in 2030. While the company's strategic focus is sound, intense competition and pricing pressure within the consolidating global HVAC industry may cap ultimate profit potential.
Long-term performance will ultimately be determined by Carrier's success in becoming an intelligent, service-led solutions provider, rather than just an equipment manufacturer.
If the company fails to fully capitalize on its investments, it may struggle to justify a premium valuation compared to its global peers, resulting in a performance that lags the broader market.
Investment Considerations
The most compelling driver for Carrier's stock over the coming years is its focused capital strategy following the completion of its portfolio transformation. The company has executed its plan to divest non-core segments, including its fire and security and commercial refrigeration businesses.
The cash from these sales is a crucial asset, with management signaling intent to deploy a significant portion toward share repurchases, which provides direct support to the stock price, and strategic debt reduction.
This aggressive deleveraging and focus on returning capital to shareholders, alongside the integration of the Viessmann Climate Solutions acquisition, is designed to transform Carrier into a leaner, higher-margin business centered entirely on premium HVAC and energy solutions.
Data center expansion and the necessity of global cold chain logistics.
The accelerating demand for artificial intelligence and cloud computing requires massive new data centers, all of which need highly specialized, ultra-efficient cooling systems. Still, the company has made strategic investments in its transportation refrigeration and cold chain monitoring business to meet the global demand for safely transporting pharmaceuticals, like vaccines, and fresh food.
Carrier’s investment in Net Feasa, for instance, focuses on enhanced real-time IoT visibility within the cold chain, positioning it as a key infrastructure player in global commerce.
Carrier faces constant pressure from tariffs and rapidly evolving environmental regulations. The company does not track gross tariff impact separately, however, mitigating upfront costs through supplier negotiations, pricing adjustments, and a pivot toward localization and dual sourcing of materials. This proactive approach suggests tariffs are a manageable cost, not a debilitating risk.
A bigger challenge is the cyclical nature of residential and construction markets, coupled with the capital-intensive task of adapting to global mandates like the A2L refrigerant transition in the HVAC sector. Carrier must sustain its pricing power to offset these rising costs while simultaneously stimulating volume growth in its temporarily weak Residential segment.
