ASML Holding NV (ASML) Stock Price Prediction: 2025, 2026, 2030

Analysts are saying that ASML Holding could rise by 2030. Bullish on ASML? Invest in ASML Holding on SoFi with no commissions. If it’s your first time signing up for SoFi, you’ll receive up to $1,000 in stock when you first fund your account. Plus, get a 1% bonus if you transfer your investments and keep them there until December 31, 2025.

ASML Holding NV is currently navigating a complex landscape where demand for its cutting-edge semiconductor equipment remains strong despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Recent developments in the chip industry, especially advances and adoption of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, continue to influence investors’ outlook. However, challenges such as geopolitical tensions and potential tariff risks are adding layers of uncertainty that are affecting stock momentum.

In this article, we’ll review ASML’s current price and valuation, examine price-target forecasts through 2030, analyze Wall Street’s latest sentiment, and break down the bullish and bearish outlooks shaping the company’s risk/reward proposition.

Current ASML Stock Overview

• Market Cap: $375.32 billion
• Trailing P/E: 33.35
• Forward P/E: 31.06
• 1 Year Return: +17%
• YTD Return: +37%

Shares of ASML are currently priced around $946 and have traded in a highly dynamic range recently, largely driven by the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) applications and intermittent geopolitical anxiety. The stock’s 52-week low is about $579, a striking 39% drop below the current value, demonstrating high volatility over the last year. The average trading price for the past 52 weeks is around $735.

While Netherlands-based ASML continues to see enormous demand for its Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) and EUV systems, especially from chipmakers expanding their capacity to service the AI sector, export controls by the U.S. and Dutch governments restrict the sale of its most advanced equipment to specific Chinese customers. The threat of potential new U.S. tariffs on goods imported from the European Union, which loomed large in early-to-mid 2025, significantly rattled the market. 

While a U.S.-E.U. trade framework announced in July 2025 seemingly removed the immediate threat of tariffs on semiconductor equipment, the preceding uncertainty has led ASML management to acknowledge potential delays in customer capital expenditure, casting a shadow on the company's previously bullish 2026 guidance.

According to Benzinga, ASML Holding NV currently maintains a consensus Hold rating from Wall Street. Based on the ratings of 14 analysts, the consensus price target is around $837. The highest target issued by JP Morgan in January sits at $1,100, representing a strong bullish outlook. The three most recent analyst ratings issued by Wells Fargo, Susquehanna and Raymond James produced an average price target of around $901, which suggests downside potential from the current trading price.

Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions

Bull & Bear Case

ASML’s unique position as a near-monopoly provider of EUV lithography tools offers strong competitive moats, yet global semiconductor cycles and geopolitical uncertainties temper the outlook. 

Bull Case

• The company is actively solidifying its lead by rolling out its next-generation High Numerical Aperture (NA) EUV systems, which are essential for manufacturing sub-2nm nodes, ensuring technological dominance for the next decade.
• The global acceleration of AI, high-performance computing, and 5G infrastructure is creating an insatiable demand for smaller, faster, and more power-efficient chips. 
• ASML is positioned as the sole bottleneck-reliever for this demand, projecting long-term annual net sales between $51 billion and $70 billion by 2030, demonstrating massive structural growth potential.
• Servicing, maintaining, and upgrading its vast global installed base of lithography systems generates a stable and growing stream of high-margin revenue for ASML, providing a crucial buffer during inevitable cyclical downturns in new equipment orders.

Bear Case

• Ongoing U.S. and Dutch export restrictions severely limit the sale of advanced EUV and even certain DUV systems to Chinese chipmakers.
• Any further tightening of Chinese restrictions or imposition of retaliatory measures by other nations could significantly slow near-term revenue growth.
• The threat of wide-ranging U.S. tariffs on E.U. imports has created immense uncertainty among ASML's major North American customers (like those building new fabs under the CHIPS Act), leading to the possibility of delayed capital expenditure. 
• Export bans are incentivising China to spend tens of billions of dollars to aggressively develop its own domestic lithography alternatives. 
• Successful development of a homegrown, less advanced, but functional alternative could eventually erode ASML's market share in DUV and older-node EUV systems over the long term.

ASML Stock Price Prediction for 2025

Bearish Prediction

$998.29

Average Prediction

$275.97

Bullish Prediction

$1,213.20

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According to CoinCodex, in 2025 ASML’s stock price is forecast to fluctuate within a wide trading range in 2025. Despite a strong market presence, some short-term volatility is expected. Average monthly estimates point to shares ending the year marginally higher than their current price. This indicates that while optimism remains, near-term risks such as shifting customer investment plans and broader economic conditions could cause price shifts within this range.

ASML Stock Price Prediction for 2026

Bearish Prediction

$539.10

Average Prediction

$780.32

Bullish Prediction

$1,099.30

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Looking into 2026, ASML is predicted to experience a wider trading channel, with an average price for the year reflecting some expected softness. Early 2026 could see prices dip below current levels amid ongoing market uncertainty and cautious semiconductor capital spending. This broader range reflects concerns about demand unevenness, with some analysts projecting slower growth due to macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical risks. 

ASML Stock Price Prediction for 2030

Bearish Prediction

$730.43

Average Prediction

$1,053.11

Bullish Prediction

$1,444.51

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By 2030, forecasts present a more bullish long-term scenario with wider price swings. This outlook hinges on continued semiconductor industry growth driven by emerging technologies like quantum computing, AI, and the increasing complexity of chip manufacturing requiring advanced lithography.

Investment Considerations

When considering ASML as an investment, it's crucial to evaluate the company's dominant position in the semiconductor equipment industry. As the only major supplier of EUV lithography machines, ASML benefits from significant competitive advantages and strong customer loyalty from global chipmakers. However, this concentration also exposes it to risks from any disruptions in the semiconductor cycle or customer investments.

Geopolitical risks remain significant. Despite the recent U.S.-E.U. trade agreement exempting ASML's semiconductor equipment from tariffs, tensions between major economies and export restrictions could affect a substantial portion of sales, especially in China, a critical market for semiconductor production. Investors should monitor developments in trade policies and international relations, as these factors could materially influence revenue forecasts.

Investors should consider the cyclicality of the semiconductor industry itself. While long-term demand drivers like AI and 5G support growth, periods of oversupply, inventory corrections, or shifts in technology adoption timelines can lead to stock volatility. Maintaining a diversified portfolio and periodic reassessment of ASML’s valuation in light of market developments is advisable.

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