Morgan Stanley On Nike's FY24 Trajectory: A Mix of Optimism And Caution with Hints Of Potential Wholesale Restocking


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Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton reiterated an Overweight rating on the shares of Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) and lowered the price target from $127 to $126.

The analyst expects a mostly in-line 1Q24 with an EPS estimate of $0.76. Also, potential revenue downside on weaker China could be offset by gross margin & SG&A upside.

Other areas of focus, according to the analyst, include inventory, NA wholesale, Greater China, & DTC/wholesale strategy color. 

After speaking with the Asia-based counterparts, the analyst anticipates NKE 1Q Greater China revenues could come in closer to the +MSD/HSD % percentage range driven by ~MSD % growth for stores & potentially better online growth. 

The analyst believes the 2Q guide could come in a touch light of Street expectations ($0.80 - $0.93 EPS range versus street $0.96), though the analyst thinks the market is mostly braced for this.

Consensus revenue & gross margin forecasts will be optimistic, though SG&A could prove an offset, said the analyst.

The analyst suspects a FY guidance reiteration is on deck, given the tough 2Q compare ahead & ongoing bloated channel inventory.

Also, the analyst sees some room for a possible raise later in the year on potential 2H wholesale re-stocking & against the low initial bar.

The potential catalysts for Nike, according to the analyst, are a further de-risking of FY24 guidance, high-single-digit percentage revenue growth back in the view, clarity on long-term DTC/wholesale split and long-term margins, and finally, leadership change.

Also ReadNike Shares Are Down 22% This Year: Why 2 Analysts Are Going Long

Price Action: NKE shares are trading lower by 0.40% at $91.21 on the last check Friday.

Photo Via Company


27% profits every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his options buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads... BUYING options. Most traders don't even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here's how he does it.


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