Consumer Goods: 6 Secular Growth Stories
Given the uncertain investing outlook for 2012 and beyond, what kind of strategies should investors be focused on? While many market participants will want to consider relatively safe, high yielding, blue-chip stocks, there are quite a few secular growth stories that make sense for those willing to take more risk. These companies are not as heavily reliant on the broader economy to drive growth and have been experiencing momentum despite the dismal economic outlook. One of the most fertile hunting grounds for these types of companies is in the consumer goods sector. The metrics used to scan for high-growth consumer stocks included estimated EPS growth above 20% for the next 5 years, sales growth over 10% for the past 5 years, and EPS growth over 20% for this year. Not surprisingly, this scan turned up some well known growth names along with a couple that may not be as familiar to readers. Below, Benzinga looks at 6 secular growth stories that have the potential for big returns in the coming years.
Brasil Foods S.A. (NYSE: BRFS) - This is a Brazilian stock that some investors may not be familiar with. The Sao Paulo-based company produces and sells poultry, pork, beef cuts, mild dairy products, and processed food products. Given Brazil's rapid development and emerging middle class, it should not be a surprise that BRFS is experiencing tremendous growth. The company currently has a market cap of $17.40 billion and the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 19.91, a forward P/E of 13.79 and a PEG ratio of just 0.39. Over the last year, shares have risen 17.49% and currently trade at $20.02. Analysts are moderately bullish on the name, which only began trading on the NYSE in November 2009, with a median price target on the stock of $23.50. Given the trajectory of BRFS and its strong growth metrics, this is a name to keep an eye on.
Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) - This Colorado-based company has had a colorful history. CROX, which is a footwear apparel company known for its ugly, but ubiquitous shoes, began trading on the NASDAQ in 2006. Shares promptly soared from under $14 in February 2006 to a high of $69.00 by the Fall of 2007. When the financial crisis hit, however, CROX nearly went bankrupt and saw its share price fall as low as $1.04 in November of 2008. The company managed to survive and in the ensuing years, CROX has been resurrected and traded as high as $32.00 in 2011. In October, however, poor guidance sent the shares plunging and CROX has been depressed ever since. Currently, the stock trades at $15.70 and is down 35% in the last 3 months. The decline in the share price has led the company's valuation to become extremely attractive. CROX currently trades at a trailing P/E of 12.84, a forward P/E of 10.71 and a PEG ratio of 0.52. While this looks cheap, anything can happen in a name as volatile as CROX. For what it is worth, analysts also view the stock as being cheap - they have a median price target of $25.50 on the name and the high target is at $30.00.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR) - This is another controversial, and volatile, name. For the most part, however, GMCR's history is one of stunning success - it was the top performing stock of the last decade. Despite its pedigree, the stock has fallen on hard times recently as earnings and revenues did not meet expectations last quarter. Also, noted hedge fund manager and short-seller David Einhorn revealed that he was short the name and gave a bearish presentation on the company in October. As a result of these developments, among others, GMCR shares have fallen from an all-time high of $115.98 in September to $44.45 today. Unbelievably, despite the plunge, GMCR is still up better than 30% in the last year. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 33.99, a forward P/E of 12.37, and a PEG ratio of 0.54. Despite the recent hiccups, analysts remain very bullish on the name with a median price target of $90.00.
Monro Muffler Brake (NASDAQ: MNRO) - This is a very interesting growth stock. The stock is up around 159% over the last five years, including 19% in the last year. The chart looks great. Furthermore, the company has been steadily increasing its dividend and currently yields 0.93%, which is a nice bonus you don't often see in a secular growth stock. MNRO is still quite small with a market cap of just $1.19 billion. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 24.80, a forward P/E of 19.32, and a PEG ratio of 1.02. Shares currently trade at $38.75 and Wall Street analysts have a median price target of $39.00 on the name.
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) - This stock has gotten a lot of attention in 2011 because of its performance and growth rates. Over the last year, LULU has risen 53% and over the last 5 years, the stock is up 274%. The company is a designer and retailer of yoga-inspired athletic apparel. LULU currently has a market cap of $7.52 billion and the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 46.22, a trailing P/E of 35.39, and a PEG ratio of 1.53. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) added LULU to its Conviction Buy list earlier this week.
Under Armour (NYSE: UA) - If you are unfamiliar with this athletic apparel retailer, you should get acquainted. This company looks a lot like a young Nike (NYSE: NKE) and the stock is starting to trade like it, as well. Shares are up 31% over the last year, better than 50% over the last 5 years, and around 187% since UA's 2005 IPO. This is a name to watch. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 43, a forward P/E of 30.75, and a PEG ratio of 1.99. The valuation is rich, but that is because Wall Street thinks that UA has the potential to become a very special company. With a market cap of just $3.73 billion, Under Armour is in its early growth stages and could reward investors for decades. Wall Street analysts currently have a median price target on the name of $83.50, which compares to the current share price of $72.64.
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