Will Thursday's Unemployment Numbers Tip Debt Ceiling Debate to Democrats?

With the Congress at a stalemate over the federal debt ceiling and a war-weary population ready for a solution to the stagnant economy, Thursday's job numbers have a chance to provide some clarity for where the government might move in the coming weeks. The data do not look too promising for the overall economy. Initial jobless claims fell to 414,000 last week, but are expected to rise this week. The consensus is for a gain to roughly 418,000. Continuing claims came in at 3.675 million last week, but are also expected to rise this week. Consensus there is a gain to 3.680 to 3.700 million claims. Both the initial and continuing jobless claims numbers are due out June 23 at 8:30 a.m. EST. These pre-market numbers could define the trading session for the day, particularly if the estimates are wildly off in either direction. Finishing below estimate for either claims number could drive the Dow higher and provide some evidence that the economic recovery might finally be under way. However, worse-than-expected numbers could point to another round of declining stock markets and difficult commodity prices. The biggest impact could be seen in the political arena, where Republicans in Congress have been battling the White House to cut trillions in spending as part of any deal to raise the debt limit. Democrats have been pushing for an increase to the debt limit, which is more urgent and pressing, and then discussion on long-term budget cuts, which are not as urgent. In the meantime, President Obama has been seeking to pivot and move off of a campaign of debt reduction and refocus on job creation and fixing the unemployment crisis. How these numbers shake out Thursday will determine how each side can frame the issue going forward.