How to Profit From German Threat to Withhold Aid to Greece

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During a speech made before Germany's Parliament, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that Greece must meet all the conditions that it previously agreed to in order to receive the next round of funds from its rescue package. Greece is having problems sticking to the austerity measures because reduced government and consumer spending have been devastating to the Greek economy. The Greeks are hoping to shift more of the focus to finding ways to promote economic growth and away from simply slashing government spending and raising taxes. Schaeuble complained that the Greeks were unable to convince the IMF, European Union and the European Central Bank that Greece would comply with all of the conditions tied to its bailout agreement. The talks between Greece and its creditors broke off last week because the Greeks were pushing for a balance between the austerity measures and more efforts to spur economic growth. Schaeuble insisted that the suspended talks continue before Greece could receive any further aid. Greece has already been rocked by violent protests in opposition to the austerity measures that many believe have done more harm than good to the country. The people of Greece are not alone in fighting against the reforms demanded by international financial backers like Wolfgang Schaeuble. Earlier this week, Italy was hit with widespread strikes and protests against austerity measures that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi promised in order to convince the European Central Bank to keep Italy's borrowing costs down by buying up Italian bonds. Growing resistance to the austerity measures could spread throughout countries like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. As options like defaulting on national debts or withdrawing from the euro become more attractive, the future of the euro will become more uncertain. To make matters worse, finance minister Schaeuble's warning is just the latest sign that many of the citizens of the more financially stable eurozone countries like Germany are becoming fed up with shouldering a financial burden that was not of their making. The constant bailouts and market interventions are becoming increasingly unpopular and Schaeuble's statements may have been less of a warning to Greece than a promise to the German people that those responsible for the Greek crisis would have to keep their promises. Taking all this into consideration, there are a number of ways to trade depending on how you see the warning from finance minister Schaeuble playing out. Shorting the euro or moving funds into a safe haven investment may be worth looking into. The euro's very existence is being called into question as investors have driven up the value of the Swiss franc and gold, looking for a safe place to put their funds. Under these circumstances the ProShares UltraShort Euro
EUO
, the SPDR Gold Shares
GLD
and the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust
FXF
are worth considering. For its part, Switzerland has grown tired of the damage being done by the rising value of the Swiss franc, which has made the country's exports less competitive and made Switzerland a more expensive holiday destination. Earlier this week the Swiss franc plunged after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a ceiling on the rate that it would allow the franc to trade at relative to the euro. Investors looking for an alternative currency may want to consider the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
FXY
. Although the Japanese are also unhappy about the rising yen, they promised not to take any actions as drastic as the Swiss franc currency ceiling. For those that haven't lost faith in the euro, there's always the CurrencyShares Euro Trust
FXE
. Although the eurozone is under tremendous financial pressure, there's a great deal of international interest in defending the euro and avoiding any eurozone defaults. If things get much worse in Europe, countries like China and Japan might take a more active role in protecting one of their most important trading partners from economic collapse.
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Posted In: Long IdeasNewsSector ETFsBondsShort IdeasSpecialty ETFsFinancingCurrency ETFsPoliticsForexEventsGlobalEcon #sEconomicsMarketsTrading IdeasETFsGeneralEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionEurozoneGermanyGreeceIMFitalyJapanJapanese YenSilvio BerlusconiSNBSwiss FrancSwiss National BankWolfgang Schaeuble
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