San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has one of the most unique stories of success in recent years, going from the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft to becoming a favorite to win the MVP Award.
Here's a look at the current odds and dilemma a bettor faces with Purdy's success.
What Happened: The 49ers entered the 2023 season as one of the favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII with odds of +1,000.
Entering Week 16, the 49ers are tied for the best record in the NFL at 11-3 and find themselves the betting favorites at sportsbooks like DraftKings Inc DKNG to win Super Bowl LVIII. The 49ers have current odds of +200, ahead of the 11-3 Baltimore Ravens at +550.
The 49ers’ success can be partly attributed to the impressive performance of quarterback Purdy. Through Week 15, Purdy has 3,795 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns and a quarterback rating of 76.0, which ranks first or second in the league.
Purdy was the ninth quarterback drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft and the last overall player taken, which earns the unfortunate "Mr. Irrelevant" title. Purdy was the third string quarterback for the 49ers behind Trey Lance and Jimmy Garopplo before a string of injuries opened the door for him in 2022, which led to early success on the field and a new starting role.
Purdy went from having low odds of winning the 2023 NFL MVP Award to becoming one of the favorites. In October, Benzinga reported that Purdy’s odds had improved, placing him tied for third at +700. In December, Purdy had moved up to the favorite at odds of +300, slightly ahead of Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott, listed at odds of +350.
Recently, when questioned about the MVP race, the 49ers’ quarterback suggested that one of his teammates deserves the award instead.
"Dude, I think Christian should be the MVP. I really do believe that. He does everything for us – runs the ball well, can catch it. He does everything. So, in my eyes, that's an MVP," Purdy said of 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.
The Betting Dilemma: Purdy is surging in the MVP race, with the 49ers dominating opponents. Three straight losses by the Eagles and the loss of the Cowboys to the Bills have dropped the odds for Hurts and Prescott, respectively.
The current MVP odds at DraftKings are:
- Brock Purdy: -200
- Lamar Jackson: +450
- Dak Prescott: +600
- Christian McCaffrey: +1,000
- Jalen Hurts: +1,500
- Josh Allen: +1,600
One bettor placed a $2,000 wager on Purdy to win the MVP award before the 2023 NFL season began. Should the 49ers quarterback clinch the award, this bet will yield a $200,000 profit.
The bettor placed the ticket up for sale on bet slip exchange site PropSwap. Betting analyst Darren Rovell said the bettor had been seeking $100,000 for the Purdy bet and turned down an offer of $90,000.
Purdy winning the MVP will pay out a nice profit, but comes with risks for the bettor including injury, poor play in the final games, or a surge in play from other players. In recent weeks, the MVP race has seen numerous shifts, with Prescott previously leading Purdy at odds ranging from +150 to +175 just last week. Additionally, Hurts experienced a change in his MVP odds, moving from +150 before Week 13 to +1500 following the Eagles’ recent struggles.
With the 49ers and Ravens tied with records of 11-3 and Purdy and Ravens quarterback Jackson the top two MVP favorites, this week's matchup between the two teams could put the $200,000 profit at risk.
The 49ers are favored by 5.5 points in the matchup that will take place on Christmas Day, one of three NFL games on the holiday. The game will be broadcast on ABC and streamed on ESPN+, both units of The Walt Disney Company DIS.
Purdy’s continued strong performance might further boost his MVP odds. However, a loss, or a standout game from Jackson, could shake up the MVP race, potentially leaving the bettor regretting not accepting the earlier $90,000 offer.
The bettor faces a big decision as the announcement of the MVP award approaches.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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