It is Official: The Market Is Not Higher Because Of Oil Prices Today (USO, SPY)
For much of the trading session on Tuesday, traders and market observers have been bandying about reasons for the rally in equity markets. Many have been pointing to lower oil prices, but this appears to be a complete farce. Oil prices haven't really pulled back significantly at all (NYMEX crude is down $0.45, or 0.44%), yet the S&P is up a little more than 11 points.
At one point, the S&P was up more than 15 points, and it does seem as if fluctuations in the oil price are having a small intra-day effect, but it cannot account for the overall bullish move. Two more likely scenarios are short covering and the Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) investor meeting, which has pushed that stock up 4.42% to $14.65.
Currently, the United States Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) is up 0.14% to $42.43, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) has gained 0.76% to $132.43. Another possible explanation for today's move is it is entirely meaningless and will reverse itself tomorrow, as we have been seeing a lot of fake outs in both directions, while the overall near-term trend is flat - SPY is down 0.11% in the last month.
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