A Look Ahead: Next Week's ETFs To Watch
Go away Greece. Seriously, that might be the mantra of those that have dared to be long the market in recent days. Hopes for a solution to Greece's massive fiscal woes buoyed the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past three days, helping the two indexes to their first positive weekly runs since April.
On the other hand, the Nasdaq is a mess, thanks in large part to another dreadful quarterly report and more anemic guidance from BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM). If financials and tech don't participate, it's hard to imagine the last few days of gains being anymore than a dead-cat bounce.
With that, here's some weekend reading in the form of next week's ETFs to watch.
1) iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund (NYSE: EPI): Did you see this headline from Bloomberg right before the market closed today: “Italy's Credit Ratings May Be Cut: Moody's.” Um yeah, if that happens, and there is a fair chance it will, you don't want be anything but short EPI.
2) iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average (NYSE: IYT): Dow theorists and FedEx (NYSE: FDX) shareholders alike will want to keep an eye on IYT next week, especially with FedEx reporting earnings on Wednesday. IYT notched a decent performance on Friday, but volume was slack at barely more than a third of the daily average.
3) U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE: USO): Anything viewed as a riskier asset has been getting waxed thanks to Greece and even Greece's problems magically get solved over the weekend, a ratings cut for Italy will undo all that good will. With Italy vulnerable and a much bigger economy than Greece, oil prices may have more to fall, making a short in USO or puts the way to go here. Or you can just be long the Guggenheim Airline ETF (NYSE: FAA).
4) iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSE: EWZ): Mainly a technical trade, EWZ looks like it made a triple bottom with support firm at $70. From here, assuming the broader market cooperates, a big “if,” EWZ could deliver 10%-12% over next several weeks.
5) iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: SGG): Someone forgot to send the risky assets memo to SGG because this ETN has been on a torrid pace since May, jumping by about 31%. We're not commenting on the long-term outlook for sugar or SGG, but in the near-term both are overbought and vulnerable to a pull back.
For what it's worth, India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, is expected to boost output. Not surprisingly, Five of eight traders, analysts and brokers surveyed by Bloomberg News said raw sugar in New York may fall next week, the news outlet reported.
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