Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares surged nearly 50% in their first three trading days after June’s IPO. Most of those gains have since vanished.
Now Wall Street analysts see the ingredients for another buying frenzy around Anthropic, with $19 billion potentially flowing into its shares shortly after next week’s expected IPO.
Why Wall Street Is Eyeing Another SpaceX Rally
The opportunity comes from new rules allowing giant companies to join major stock indexes within days or weeks of going public.
Funds tracking those indexes must buy the shares. Hedge funds can get there first, hoping to sell at a profit when billions in index-fund buying arrive.
London-based research firm Intropic estimates Anthropic could attract $19 billion in such demand, Reuters reported Thursday.
“Anthropic is a mirror image of the SpaceX IPO,” Carsten Hesse, head of index events at Berenberg, told Reuters.
Anthropic could enter at least six indexes within 15 trading days.
Only about 6% of its shares will be offered publicly, in a deal worth up to $64.4 billion. Intropic estimates index demand alone could equal roughly 28% of that offering.
SpaceX experienced that frenzy in June, fueled by retail demand, options trading and anticipation of index buying. Its shares closed their third trading day at $201.80, nearly 50% above the $135 IPO price.
The Catch: SpaceX’s Rally Didn’t Last
SpaceX shares subsequently tumbled, in part as investors anticipated employees and early backers becoming eligible to sell.
Anthropic could face selling pressure even sooner. Its SEC filing shows up to 316 million existing shares could become eligible for sale on day one, equivalent to more than a third of its 825 million-share IPO.
In an exclusive Benzinga interview, Freedom Capital Markets strategist Jay Woods suggested investors might find a better entry point after the initial rush.
Prediction traders aren’t betting on a spectacular debut either.
On Polymarket, the leading outcome puts Anthropic’s first-day closing valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion, at roughly 37%. About 56% of the probability sits below $1.5 trillion, giving traders a better-than-even chance of a gain of no more than about 7%, or a loss, if the IPO values Anthropic at $1.4 trillion.
SpaceX closed Wednesday at $139.75, just 3.5% above its original IPO price.
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