A Rate Hike Before The Election?

The U.S. presidential election is now less than three months away, and it remains one of a number of major uncertainties right now for investors. The Federal Reserve is weighing the pros and cons of another interest rate hike on a month-to-month basis, but global economic uncertainty and mixed U.S. economic data has made the Fed’s next move difficult for investors to pin down.

A Wall Street Journal poll of 62 economists earlier this month found that 71 percent believe the Fed will delay its next move until December, after the election. A combined 18 percent of economists believe the next hike will come before the election, with 11 percent predicting September and 7 percent predicting November.

Humble Student of the Markets’ Cam Hui recently told Benzinga that he expects the Fed to wait until after the election.

“Doubtful that the #FOMC hikes before election,” Hui tweeted. “Yellen Fed telegraphs its moves but chance of rate hike in Sep & Nov still below 50%.”

Garden State Securities Chief Market Strategist Karl Snyder agrees, calling a pre-election hike “not likely, but keep an eye on Fed Fund Futures.” Snyder said the futures market is often a good guide for traders.

So far in August, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) is up 0.6 percent, while the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NASDAQ: TLT) is down 0.8 percent.

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