Goldman Sach's Exelon Bear Case Comes To An End


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Exelon Corporation (NYSE:EXC) is the largest electric holding company in the U.S., with around 10 million customers. A better valuation model, potential upside to consensus estimates and few headwinds led Goldman Sachs to upgrade the equity the energy stock this week. 

The Analyst

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Goldman Sachs' Michael Lapides upgraded Exelon from Sell to Neutral with a price target lifted from $40 to $43.

The Thesis

The bearish case for Exelon's stock no longer applies for three reasons, Lapides said in the upgrade note. (See the analyst's track record here.)

They are:

  • An improved sum-of-the-parts valuation model.
  • Potential upside versus consensus estimates.
  • Minimal negative catalysts in the near term.

Goldman's sum-of-the-part valuation model derives a total value per share of $43 versus a prior $40, Lapides said. The difference comes from a more attractive valuation as earnings from the company's ExGen business increase, while net debt decreases along with a lower holding company drag.

Upside to Exelon's earnings 2019 and beyond could come from the following factors, the analyst said:


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  • Updated hedging.
  • Improved O&M cost management at ExGen.
  • Updated rate increases at the company's regulated utilities.
  • Lower debt financing needs.

This year's PJM capacity auction represents a modest headwind, as the market appears to be oversupplied, Lapides said.

Litigation around Exelon's nuclear subsidies remains a risk over the longer-term and could be worth 25 cents per share in EPS through 2020, according to Goldman Sachs.

Nevertheless, there are few negative catalysts in the near-term, Lapides said. 

Price Action

Shares of Exelon were trading higher by 1.2 percent Thursday morning.

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Exelon's Mystic Station power plant in Everett, Massachusetts. Photo by Fletcher6/Wikimedia. 


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Posted In: Analyst ColorUpgradesPrice TargetAnalyst RatingsElectric CompanieselectricityGoldman SachsMichael Lapidesnuclear power