Will Facebook Continue Getting 'Likes'?
April's trendline break couldn't sink Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) for good, which emboldened the bulls.
July's rally peak couldn't eclipse the broken trendline, which has the bears smiling.
Something has to give, right?
At any point in market history, one could identify a handful of stocks that have truly captured the market's imagination and that are a reflection on what's going on in the world. Facebook, along with several other social media leaders, is one of those stocks.
What The Bulls Are Seeing
Since the bears failed to follow through on Facebook's trendline break in early April, the stock has been in true "leader" mode, running nearly 50 percent to the upside in the process. After making new all-time highs in late July, the stock gapped up for several more points before beginning a pullback/consolidation phase.
After the stock basically filled the gap that occurred in late July, the bulls are now feeling that Facebook has refilled the tanks and is ready for take off once again. This feeling is supported by the fact that the stock is no longer overbought, according to two popular oscillators: the Williams %R and the RSI indicators.
This would seem to be a dip worth buying –- at least in the bull's eyes.
What The Bears Are Seeing
The bearish crowd is quick to point out that Facebook experienced an exhaustion gap in late July, which took the stock right up to the underbelly of the trendline that was broken in April. The bears may be seeing a healthy pullback, if not a complete reversal of fortune to the downside, is in order for Facebook shares.
Even the middle-of-the-road type of bear in this stock sees it moving back down to the $68.44 level (a Fibonacci-generated projection).
So, Who Will Claim Victory In This Facebook Face-Off?
As long as the market is friendly to the bulls, it's difficult to imagine Facebook getting hammered too badly.
A pullback from the mid-$70s to $68.44, however, would hardly qualify as the stock getting hammered. Rather, that would be a relatively healthy consolidation of the 40+ percent gains that occurred from April to July. In that case, both the bulls and bears, as outlined above, may be proven correct in their theses.
How To Trade Facebook From Here?
Aggressive and nimble short-term traders can short Facebook at current levels with a stop-loss in place on any close above $74. If $74 is conquered on the upside on a closing basis, the “continued pullback to $68.44” bearish theory is not likely to come to fruition according to technicians.
For those looking to go long, the technicians would say to try to buy a dip in the stock down to the aforementioned extrapolated "correction support" at $68.44.
If Facebook closes above $74, however, technicians might say to go ahead and look to buy as close to $74 as possible for a run to new highs north of $80. In that case, however, note to use a stop loss on any close back below $74.
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