Market Overview

Technical Forecast for US and Euro Stock Markets

 

S&P failed below 1533/35. The last leg of the 4 year rally from November at 1340 made 190 points or 14%. Yesterday’s huge key reversal signaled an end to that rally. It is possible we see 1420 by Easter. Today we are testing 21 day MA support at 1506/05 so a bounce is possible with 1511/12 our first resistance then 1515/16 & 9 day MA plus the 6 week trend line that we broke below yesterday. Look for a high for the day here & possibly the last chance to sell before a collapse.  If however we push higher, 1521 should cap.
Below 1505 sees 1502 then not much to stop a test of good Fibonacci support at 1495. We should look over sold in the short term at this stage so would hope for a bounce but longs need a stop below 1490 for 1483/81.
 
In the longer term we have a frightening head & shoulders pattern built over a 13 year period and this has horrific implications in the years to come. I really hope I am wrong about this but we will need a break above 1580 to calm my fears & this looks very unlikely now.
 
 
 
 
Dow Jones Industrial Average only reached 14035. The last leg of the 4 year rally started in November at 
 
12434 & took prices up 190 points or 13%. Yesterday’s price action signaled an end to that rally with the huge  key reversal. It is possible we see 13160 by Easter. Today we are testing 21 day MA support at 13888 so a bounce is possible to 13914, may be 13937/945. This may cap & be the last opportunity to sell before a collapse. If we do push higher we may stretch to 13974.  
 
A break of 13850 however keeps the pressure on for 13802 but below here there is little to stop a test of 
 
13730/715 today. At this stage we should be very oversold in the short term & ready for a bounce.  
I am seriously worried about this market now. We have a vast 3 year double top pattern with frighteningly bearish 
 
implications in the months & years to come. Only a close above the 2007 highs will now calm my fears. I hope I  am wrong about this but the evidence is pretty clear.  
 
 
 
EuroStoxx tackled 2668/2671, the main obstacle of the day & topped here. We took a tumble towards 2630/27 support which held as predicted now that the daily outlook has turned bullish. 
 
Same levels apply for today with 2653/55 then 2668/71 Fibonacci resistance, Bollinger bands & 21 DMA plus 9 week MA just above at 2676 so it is only above here that bulls can relax & target 2690/93. The chance of a high for the day here but if we push on there is little to stop a move to 2716/19. 
 
Support at 2633 then 2626/24 which could provide a floor. However stops needed below 2611 for 2596 then 2587 lows, weekly 23.6% Fibonacci at 2583 & 9 month up trend at 2580 a buying opportunity in this band. Stops below 2565 for 2549
 
 
 
Dax challenged tough trend line & short term Fibonacci resistance at 7780/87 & failed here
 
Good support seen at 7671/66 today with a bounce possible but below 7650 look for 7619/13. If this support fails & we break yesterday’s low at 7609 we should test important 9 month uptrend support at 7583 with last week’s low at 7570. If this area does not hold today we could see 7536 next.  
 
If we can hold 7712 we hit resistance at 7733 then 7750/53 before yesterday’s  resistance at 7780/87 for trying shorts. Only if we can clear 7800 we should see 7835/38 then 7856.
 
 
 
FTSE hit the 6396 target & the high of mid 2008 where we exited longs & tried shorts. We topped out exactly here as expected.
 
We have dipped back below 6344 which could act as resistance. Next Fibonacci support is 6315/11 where we also meet the 9 day MA so watch for a bounce. Below here, 2 week trend line support at 6300 so stops on ay longs needed below here for yesterday’s low & 21 day MA at 6276. 
 
If we push back above 6362/65 a retest of 6390/97 offers another selling opportunity with a stop above 6405 needed for a run to 6500/05.
 
 
 
S&P failed below 1533/35. The last leg of the 4 year rally started in November at 1340 & took prices up 190 points or 14%. Yesterday’s price action signaled an end to that rally with the huge key reversal. It is possible we see 1420 by Easter. Today we are testing 21 day MA support at 1506/05 so a bounce is possible with 1511/12 our first resistance then 1515/16 & 9 day MA plus the 6 week trend line that we broke below yesterday. Look for a high for the day here & possibly the last chance to sell before a collapse.  If however we push higher, 1521 should cap. 
 
Below 1505 sees 1502 then not much to stop a test of good Fibonacci support at 1495. We should look over sold in the short term at this stage so would hope for a bounce but longs need a stop below 1490 for 1483/81.

Posted-In: Technicals Markets Trading Ideas

 

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