Breaking Down Baidu's Technicals
Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) shares have bounced over 30 percent after touching the bottom of its trend channel. The powerful hanging man candle proved to be a buy signal as the stock landed on the channel's lower bound.
Fast forward 25 trading days, and shares are now near the channel's upper bound. Is the technical story enough to push the equity through the upper bound of the channel and, additionally, through the stock's 200-day moving average?
In order to answer the former, traders need to look at some longer-term charts. BIDU has had massive horizontal support at $113 for nearly two years!
Those who don't subscribe to technical analysis should consult see the chart below. Every touch of $113 was a buyable pullback within the aforementioned period.
Horizontal support tends to rank higher in strength than other types of lines. Channels and other diagonal lines, for example, are considered by many to be "weaker" than horizontal lines. This is hotly debated in the technical community, but interestingly enough, BIDU's chart has both types of lines providing resistance at roughly $113.
However, the $113 level has weakened over time.
The first two tests of BIDU's $113 level resulted in only one trading day spent there. The third time BIDU found itself around $113, five days were spent fighting the bears.
The fourth test came in December of 2011. In this instance, eleven trading days were devoted to testing the $113 level. BIDU oscillated around support, but eventually took off.
The fifth test should have been a red flag because there were nearly 14 closes below $113, but shares still rallied after bulls took control. On average if one bought the $113 level each time, the resulting rally was 31 percent.
Simply put, BIDU just hasn't been the same stock since October of 2012.
Then, shares gapped down 6 percent on an earnings report. After the report, the following 25 trading days were spent selling off. BIDU found support at its trend channel lower bound off of a bottoming tail hammer and confirmation bar. Interestingly enough, the selloff and rally back are symmetrical in days -- each took 25! Coincidence? Perhaps, but it is interesting to note.
The $113 level in BIDU is clearly an important level. A pair of important trend lines intersect here and now.
The 200-day moving average is also above current prices; but on the other hand, BIDU tore through the 50-, 100-, and 150-day moving averages on the way back up.
Traders may want to get long volatility via long straddles or strangles if they think the $113 level will be promptly resolved up or down fast. Maybe a pin at $113 would cause max pain; in that case a short iron condor around that level could be advised.
At any rate, Baidu has been a favorite stock among traders, and continues to be a hot stock to watch.
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