Technical Update: How Far Can Crude Oil Fall?

The weekly chart of crude oil is highlighted this week to get an idea of the possibilities in terms of its major trend. Recently, whether it is because of the rising U.S. dollar or rising inventories due to new fracking technologies, crude oil has been under major selling pressure. Even when potential upside catalysts like geopolitical tensions have surfaced, crude has failed to make any significant progress on the upside. The weekly chart of crude tells technicians that the commodity may either be in a wave "c" of "abc" move to the downside with a target of the 2012 low at $75.05 or in the early stages of wave "(iii)" to the downside with targets in the $50s-$60s. Either way, the technicians note that there seems to be plenty of downside action left in crude oil in the longer-term. In the shorter term, however, the next two mile-markers on the downside are $88.14 and $86.13 (from about $91.40 Friday). Traders are likely to keep a "sell the rips" mentality in place when it comes to crude oil until further notice. What that means is that any rally in crude that takes the %R and/or RSI indicators to overbought readings on the daily chart will be triggers for them to look for entry points on the short side. The nearest such entry points appear to come in at either $92.43 or $93.97 right now, according to technicians.