Market Overview

$ES_F Selloff Due To Landmines On Pluto(Or Something)... Anyway, Astro Stuff Nails It Again; Plus: Bond Yields; HFs Out In The Cold


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Snippets: “Hedge fund net equity exposure (29%) dips to lowest % since Jun’12.” ie, HFs haven’t been participating in this run-up … but we already knew that – cyrus.  **Mid month is upon us …

All the home builders have corporate put sale programs in motion? The dn side in these, which imo would be good tail ballast if a downturn resurfaces, seem to have infinite listed puts for sale – rcanlione.

Hotter than a pistol … Part 4: I don’t need to understand it, but here it is — The stars, planets, water and all that astro … This day is going to get really active … esp 10amPT to the close/last 3 hrs. If we breach 1888 dont expect more upside…We are dealing with explosive/dangerous pluto, crazy full moon energy. = landmines…and it will NOT be dull. It can invert..but could reverse at any point very impulsively so careful if trying upside. 1887.80 daily low SMW (09:25CT) So far accurate. Remember … energy intensifies the later we go – stockmarketwhisperer. Updated (13:13CT) now, and 12:49PT to the close are aspects exact times to perhaps break this cosmic stand off… or I may have to use my +/- a day card ! As I’ve been saying all week…watch 1888 carefully at those times. Following the downside breakout … (14:10CT) Do i get a bingo on ‘energy intensifies as day goes on..and 4 hrly closes under 92= bearish’ ? <BINGO> SMW! Be sure to see SMW post close update below.

Today started with 158k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1890.50 – 1897.25. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1892.50 – 1898.50 before settling at 1894.30 up 1.5 handles.   

U.K. First-Quarter Jobless Rate Falls to Five-Year Low of 6.8%.  10-year Treasury yield sinks to 2014 low on dovish monetary signals from Bank of England and ECB  Wholesale Prices in U.S. Increase by 0.6%, Most in More Than a Year.

Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 2 handles higher to 1892.50 – 1893.00 marking the early high with the bonds up a full point – the S&P 500 opened lower, led by [IWM] following three days of gains – first 15 mins trading range 1893.00 / 1889.20 … low extended to 1888.50 in first 30 mins. rcanlione (8:56) [SPX] – large strangle seller this morning. Sold 10k Jun 1840/1920 at $24.20 and $24.00, getting short about $4mln vega. More offered at $24.20 now … Derrick (09:01) vix not support selloff. A pop to retest the opening range held and the index faded to a new daily low of 1887.80 before bouncing. william_blount (09:02) if count right, we get new highs today – Nazdork 3614 and the S&P opening 1892.5 MUST be killed. uh, may want to draw horizontal on 3614 and look back to yesterday. also may want to note 1892.5 was SPOO LOD yesterday. william_blount (09:16) 13.75 and 92.75 bounce highs — sorry about the .25 on both. Derrick (09:18) tf leading – nq unable hold vwap. Chance (09:44) financials weak today FrogMan (09:48) Chance curve flattening so not helping financials – in Europe only hearing of layoffs in financial (JPM, GS, Barcap). Only recruitment is for biz killers: lawyers and compliance officers. william_blount (09:49) nothing has changed bulls NEED badly through 1892.5 and 3614 if this is a nano 4 low. william_blount (10:13) BULLS MUST SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY – OR THEY START GETTING HOSED WITH EXTENDED WAVE STUFF. The indices are looking for leadership following 3 days of gains and this was not helping … Roger (10:13) Utilities leading and financials lagging among S&P sectors. Going into the European close the S&P futures were trading sub 1890, fractionally above the middle of the 5.2 morning trading range. stockmarketwhisperer (10:57) 4 hourly closes below 94 = bearish indication – downward revision ahead?

PivotBoss midday update  ADR targets

Robert (12:22)  we did 166k volume si far from previous swing low for a small 3.5pts so far does not look good for upside. Considering the tight midday range 1890 area Robert (12:15) this is what the market look without programs … boy, you can say this again and again …  added to my short at 1891.5 so now my entry is 90.75. william_blount (12:25) this egg aint done yet, needs to boil sum more – NOTHING HAS CHANGED. Mikey_P (13:02) S 1890.5 via spy puts – need dynOmite at 89.25. Robert (13:12) go down here have full position here. Roger (13:43) [IWN] lows. stockmarketwhisperer (13:49) 1888 busted and new low woo hoo … 70′s … come to mama – I’m still short from 1896/93=94.50 – ‘bears in da house’!  Barry (14:08) the 5 day composite profile has a substantial LVN from 1886 to 1884 that will probably gets some filling in. stephen_cohen (14:28) 8 handle range rth so far. Sam_Easley (14:28) thats all we can probably hope for on a day like today. George (14:28) troubling if we don’t bounce off this area though. Following the quiet midday sideways to lower price action, the futures did quickly drop 5 handles to a new daily low of 1882.20 before bouncing. The MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter started a small buy and grew to a modest $190M to the buy side going into the cash close while the IWM was down 1.6%. The futures traded 1885.10 area on the cash close before settling at 1885.30, down 9 handles on volume of 1.17M e-minis, while the [VIX] was up fractionally.

stockmarketwhisperer (15:04) strong negative in overnight hrs/globex.. some kind of news headline harbinger…things then improve later part of tomorrow…or from 1870 I’d go long. AFTER 10:45ET tonight may be a shift..I will be watching to see. negative is around 6-8pmPT.

[CSCO] Cisco Systems, reports Q3 EPS $0.51 vs est $0.48. EPS unchanged from the same qtr last yr. Revenue $11.50B vs est $11.38B. Sales Down 6% year over year.

Eco calendars:

Posted y’day: I think people may be overlooking the impact of potential ECB action – as mentioned by Brian yesterday it has brought down Euro and US yields, and may hold off a big selloff in equities – George … right George, there’s talk of something being done in China too… I’m not clear any of that is good for US equities – Barry.

Posted last Friday:  Folks tend to focus only on the AAII Sentiment bull/bear spread, but I also keep an eye on neutral sentiment – think of it as a measure of the “dry powder” that will eventually go back into the market. Over the course of the last nine weeks, neutral sentiment has risen from a z-score of +0.1 (basically the mean), to +1.3 in the current week. For perspective, this week’s reading of 43% is the highest since February 2003. Implications of high neutral sentiment are bullish with above-average gains and positive expected forward performance across 1-mo, 3-mo, 6-mo and 12-mo timeframes – Oh, and dont forget … The Pitbull’s thurs/Fri low before opex – Cyrus.


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