Can 'Divergent' Overcome Its Lack Of Twitter Talk?

next big franchise might not be as big as some investors expect. Set for release Friday, March 21,

looks like the kind of film that viewers might expect from the studio that produced

. But while the film itself may be entirely different, the familiar trailer -- and the perception that comes with it -- could deter moviegoers this weekend. In January,

predicted that the film will open at $50 million.

said that it could earn close to $70 million. Both estimates are attainable, but investors won't know how well the film has performed until the studio estimates are released on Sunday. The final numbers won't be published before Monday afternoon.

In the meantime, investors are turning to other indicators (such as social media) to see if they can figure out how the film will perform. One such investor is Chris Camillo, author of

. He

to predict the success of

and invested in Lionsgate. His due diligence paid off, so Benzinga was eager to know what Camillo thought of

. "First let me tell you that I have not done the extensive diligence on of

that I had done on

," Camillo told Benzinga. "And that's really because I believed that the market…I think there's more eyes on

than there were on

. Naturally I'm less interested in it. I'm gonna make an assumption that they're probably a little bit better this time around at pricing this in." Regardless, Camillo has kept an eye on

and its success (or lack thereof) in social media. "The Twitter volume for

going into this opening week is running about 20 to 25 percent of what

had," said Camillo. Put another way,

has 75 to 80 percent less Twitter volume than

. "Now it's very difficult to build out a correlation between raw tweet volume and opening weekend grosses, but it's one data point that you should be aware of," Camillo added.

Thus far, Camillo said that

book sales haven't been on par with

. "But at the same time you'll routinely see

being cited for book sales based on its Amazon rank," said Camillo. "And I think that's being underrated a bit because the Amazon ranking of

, when you just look at e-books, is considerably higher. Over the past couple of years since

came out, e-books have become a more important metric."

Even if

book sales continue to climb, the franchise will still have some hurdles to overcome. "Crossover appeal -- that's the big question, right?" said Camillo. "Does

have the crossover appeal that

had? That's where my hope for

really got deflated."

Camillo believes that

had a "strong crossover appeal" because of its positive critical reception, "which

obviously does not have." "I know it's early and there's only a handful of Rotten Tomatoes reviews that have come in," Camillo added. "But both the trade magazines are in, some fairly significant Rotten Tomatoes reviews are in, and they're not great. They're not terrible, but they're certainly not good enough to give

critical crossover appeal that would bring people who would not ordinarily watch a film like

out of the house and into the theater because they think it's an 'it' movie. That is extremely important." If Camillo had seen Rotten Tomatoes reviews in the 80 to 90-plus range (which is what

and its sequel,

, received), he said that he would have been intrigued. But that wasn't the case. "I would say the over/under number to disappoint and to have it start to impact Lionsgate's stock is $50 million," said Camillo. "If it comes in under $50 million this weekend we have a problem for Lionsgate. I think between $50 million and $70 million, I think that's your range of expected opening box office. Anything over $70 million or $80 million, certainly I think that's a positive for the stock." Camillo does not think that a $50 million (or less) opening would be a "disaster" for the franchise. However, he does believe that it could hurt the "long-term impact of Lionsgate's stock." "At that point, at under $50 million,

no longer becomes a significant and substantial long-term driver to replace

and

," said Camillo.

Last but not least, Camillo said that while

fans are excited for the first two films, they are not as interested in the third chapter -- for

. "So you really need this film to come out of the gate strong if you're gonna perceive this to be a

/

replacement," Camillo concluded. "That's what investors want." Disclosure: