Goodbye July 7/30/10

Based on the last two day’s action Crude oil appears to be making attempts at higher ground. We will be late to this move because I do not trust it and need further confirmation before getting bullish exposure for clients. A settlement above $79.50 would be the first hurdle. Natural gas will close 8% higher this week at a fresh one month high. We’re suggesting trailing stops on futures just below the 50 day MA and to purchase October and November 50 cent call spreads. The Dow bounced off the 200 day MA at 10275 and could revisit the week’s highs early next week closer to 10550. We would still suggest selling rallies thinking a weak jobs number next week could be the nail in the coffin for the bulls. Likewise the S&P pared losses today but as long as prices settle below 1104; the 200 day MA we think it remains a sell rallies market. For now clients will be fading rallies and purchasing September puts in the ES. December cotton closed 2.41% higher today breaking to the upside; futures traders should take losses on a trade above 80 cents. Yes we’re bucking the recent trend but we like December puts thinking a trade down to the low 70′s is likely. Lumber seems to have found some support between $200-205; as we’ve voiced in recent weeks we expect a jump to $240 in the November contract. December live cattle held the 20 day MA after multiple attempts re-gaining much of yesterday’s losses today. We want to be a buyer on a set back with clients closer to 93/94 cents. December gold gained 1.14% today lifting prices to the 100 day MA at the high of the day. Seasonally we are heading into a bullish part of the year for gold but we will wait for further evidence before re-committing capital for clients. Consecutive settlements above $1187 would get us interested in gaining long exposure…stay tuned. September silver was higher by 2.37% today lifting prices back over $18/ounce. Brave traders have remained long and should continue to trail stops on their futures. We also suggest buying December call spreads as a settlement over $18.25 next week should mean an attempt at $19.50. Buy agriculture before the 8/12 USDA report. Contact us for more details or subscribe to our weekly commentary for precise trading ideas. We’re interested in having client’s long corn, soybeans, soy meal and today started buying KCBOT/CBOT wheat spreads. Clients took a partial loss on their Swissie futures overnight. Most still are short but have reduced their trade size in half. Options traders remain short the Euro and Swissie looking for some reprieve next week. With the Central banks on a new monthly calendar we expect European currencies to depreciate...stay tuned. Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything outside of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard; President of MB Wealth. Benzinga Recommends that you take a look at the iShares COMEX Gold Trust IAU. The IAU is the ETF that tracks gold. The iShares COMEX Gold Trust is up 1.14% in today's session.