Fed Watch
The Federal Reserve convened its annual Wyoming retreat late last week and over this past weekend. As it stands now, what looked like a near-lock for a rate hike in September has been thrown into question amid the volatility in global markets and worries over the possible economic fallout from that stock rout. It seems the Fed's not so sure. On Wednesday, New York Fed President William Dudley seemed to close the door on a September rate hike, saying it looked "less compelling" based on market turmoil. But at the end of the week, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggested that markets might calm down quickly, setting up a rate decision largely independent of short-term market swings. Projected rate-hike odds did shift again from those priced in during the worst day of stock market pain. The news out of Jackson Hole, when taken in conjunction with low-inflation improvement in recent numbers, put the probability of a rate rise in September at 34%, according to Friday pricing in the Fed fund futures market. Those odds are up from 25% last Wednesday.Jobs Report Headliner
The jobs report at the end of the week (full calendar in figure 3) is what will have tongues wagging in the coming days. It will draw even more attention than usual because it comes less than a month before that Fed rate decision. Wall Street economists expect about 220,000 new jobs in the August tally. Some data points before then may help fill in the picture, including auto sales on Tuesday. Economic bulls are likely looking for signs that the torrid pace of sales over the last nine months continued. Wednesday features the Fed's Beige Book collection of economic anecdotes from around the nation issued. I'm not sure how many market participants had counted on quiet late-summer action in the lead-up to the long Labor Day weekend. Many more may be hanging around. Either way, strap yourself in. Good trading, JJ @TDAJJKinahan FIGURE 3: ECONOMIC AGENDA. This week's U.S. economic report calendar. Source: Briefing.comThis piece was originally posted here by JJ Kinahan on August 31, 2015.
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