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It was revealed on Monday that billionaire investor Carl Icahn successfully bid for CVR Energy
CVI with an offer valuing the company at $2.6 billion. The majority of CVI shareholders have now agreed to sell Icahn their stakes.
That deal will make Icahn the largest shareholder at CVI with 69% of the company following his $30 per share offer. And it gets better for shareholders, as they could get up to $7 more per share if Icahn is able to sell the Sugar Land company.
The CVI board may have vehemently opposed Icahn's offer, but that proved to be counter-productive when faced with mass shareholder approval. Icahn, ever the wheeler-dealer, is looking to sell the company on, roughly two months after the purchase, hence the board's reticence.
Icahn has not been slow to criticize the CVI board and has been urging a sale for some time. According to a May 1 statement, the company made a 1Q loss of $25.2 million, or 29 cents per share, compared with income of $45.8 million, or 52 cents per share, a year earlier. However you look at it, that's a startling change of fortunes that would appear to prove Icahn's complaints to be true.
Overall, CVR has a solid underlying business. And from the quantitative perspective, the company is currently undervalued, it's a safe long-term value investment. However, the acquisition and re-sell events will generate volatility to its share price. Share price will be very volatile in the next six months.
ACTION ITEMS:
Bullish:
Traders who believe that CVR is on the up might want to consider the following trades:
Traders who believe that CVR will sink may consider an alternate positions:
Follow me @BCallwood.Bullish:
Traders who believe that CVR is on the up might want to consider the following trades:
- The energy Sector is currently undervalued among all sectors. Investing in the energy sector is a safe long-term strategy since the P/B and P/E of this sector is relatively low, indicating the sector is undervalued and has strong growth potential.
- CVR Energy itself has solid quantitative data.
- P/E ratio and P/B ratios are lower than sector average. The company has an Intrinsic Value to Price ratio equals to 1.1 means its fair value is bigger than its current price.
- Share price is close to the 52 week high indicating the company is attracting attention and accelerating momentum.
Traders who believe that CVR will sink may consider an alternate positions:
- Carl Icahn criticized CVR's management team. One big concern is that whether or not he can improve the management efficiency after the acquisition.
- Carl plans to sell the company shortly after the acquisition. This would bring volatility to the share price. Investors should hedge this risk.
- Recent insider trading history indicates that insider owners are selling their shares. This may caused by the acquisition rumor, but still, net sales by the inside owners is a bad sign.
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