Carl Icahn Makes Winning Bid for CVR Energy

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It was revealed on Monday that billionaire investor Carl Icahn successfully bid for CVR Energy
CVI
with an offer valuing the company at $2.6 billion. The majority of CVI shareholders have now agreed to sell Icahn their stakes. That deal will make Icahn the largest shareholder at CVI with 69% of the company following his $30 per share offer. And it gets better for shareholders, as they could get up to $7 more per share if Icahn is able to sell the Sugar Land company. The CVI board may have vehemently opposed Icahn's offer, but that proved to be counter-productive when faced with mass shareholder approval. Icahn, ever the wheeler-dealer, is looking to sell the company on, roughly two months after the purchase, hence the board's reticence. Icahn has not been slow to criticize the CVI board and has been urging a sale for some time. According to a May 1 statement, the company made a 1Q loss of $25.2 million, or 29 cents per share, compared with income of $45.8 million, or 52 cents per share, a year earlier. However you look at it, that's a startling change of fortunes that would appear to prove Icahn's complaints to be true. Overall, CVR has a solid underlying business. And from the quantitative perspective, the company is currently undervalued, it's a safe long-term value investment. However, the acquisition and re-sell events will generate volatility to its share price. Share price will be very volatile in the next six months.

ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that CVR is on the up might want to consider the following trades:
  • The energy Sector is currently undervalued among all sectors. Investing in the energy sector is a safe long-term strategy since the P/B and P/E of this sector is relatively low, indicating the sector is undervalued and has strong growth potential.
  • CVR Energy itself has solid quantitative data.
  • P/E ratio and P/B ratios are lower than sector average. The company has an Intrinsic Value to Price ratio equals to 1.1 means its fair value is bigger than its current price.
  • Share price is close to the 52 week high indicating the company is attracting attention and accelerating momentum.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that CVR will sink may consider an alternate positions:
  • Carl Icahn criticized CVR's management team. One big concern is that whether or not he can improve the management efficiency after the acquisition.
  • Carl plans to sell the company shortly after the acquisition. This would bring volatility to the share price. Investors should hedge this risk.
  • Recent insider trading history indicates that insider owners are selling their shares. This may caused by the acquisition rumor, but still, net sales by the inside owners is a bad sign.
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.
Follow me @BCallwood.
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