Is Morgan Soaring Ahead of Itself?

Is it possible that a company's place in the queue of earnings releases plays a material role in how its performance moves its stock? Let's take a publicly traded company that is largely expected to under-perform and even miss estimates on key metrics. Let's call that company, say, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). If these under-performing earnings catch the market at the end of a down-stroke on other sector players also having disappointed, can the stock propel up?

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) reports earnings tomorrow at 10:00 AM and it looks like it won't have the benefit of catching the zigzaging market on the verge of a down momentum reversaI. MS shares are already up 6 percent for today on the good sector mood delivered by GS, who in turn looked golden on the shoulders of coal delivered by JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C). What does Morgan Stanley need to do tomorrow to keep this momentum up?

Taking a page out of Goldman, Morgan Stanley may decide to chew on its proverbial leg in order to get out of a bind. We commented last year on the pink slips handed out at the financial giant, and Fox News says the company is looking to do more of the same.

Consensus on the street is that Morgan Stanley will report a net loss of $0.57 per share and revenues of $5.6 billion for the fourth quarter. As was the case with Goldman, expectations have fallen over the last 60 days. Goldman had this to say on Morgan Stanley back in December, as it reaffirmed its Neutral rating on the stock: “We expect Morgan Stanley to post only modest non-GAAP profitability in the 4Q (not including the $1.8 bn MBIA-related pre-tax loss), as our new $0.01 estimate (prior $0.30) reflects a muted backdrop and limited expense flexibility given comp deferrals in prior years.”

A stock move prediction, like a broken clock, is guaranteed to be right a certain percentage of the time. If MS shares do not take off tomorrow, they will tank (unless, of course, they go sideways). It all depends on how high a sugar rush (or crash) is produced on today's elevated financial shares.