AUD/USD Forecast: Modest Recovery Post-Fed

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.7451

• Mixed Australian macroeconomic data maintained the aussie under pressure.
• A dovish US Federal Reserve put a cap on the greenback’s rally.
• AUD/USD is still at risk of falling in the near term, eyes on 0.7400.

The AUD/USD pair trades in the 0.7450 region, up from a fresh weekly low of 0.7411. The aussie benefited from a dovish US Federal Reserve, which delivered as promised but refrained from hinting at future changes in the monetary policy, cooling down expectations for rate hikes in 2022. The US central bank is aware that inflation will remain at high levels through most of next year amid supply chain issues, but policymakers still expect it to recede once things normalize.

Australian data released at the beginning of the day was mixed, as the October AIG Construction Index improved to 57.6 from 53.3, although the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same month was downwardly revised to 51.8. Finally, September Building Permits contracted 4.3% in September, much worse than the -2% expected. The country will publish the September Trade Balance on Thursday.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair has bounced from near the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily advance at 0.7407 but remains below the next Fibonacci level at 0.7460. The near term picture shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside, with the pair developing below its 20 and 100 SMAs. Technical indicators have recovered from near oversold readings, but remain well into negative levels.

Support levels: 0.7405 0.7370 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7460 0.7500 0.7550

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