Tropical Cyclone Eyeing Florida This Weekend

Humberto could visit Florida this weekend

Yesterday, a disturbance known as "Invest 95L," was just a cluster of disorganized thunderstorms hovering near the southeastern Bahamas. Today, Sept. 13, it's becoming more organized and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is calling it Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC 9).

SONAR Critical Events: Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 on Friday, Sept. 13, 11 a.m. EDT.

As of 8 a.m. EDT today, PTC 9 was centered about 190 miles southeast of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. This can be seen in the NHC data housed inside the FreightWaves SONAR Critical Events platform. PTC 9 will likely pick up more steam and could become Tropical Storm Humberto sometime today or over the weekend. The NHC is pegging the chances of this happening at 80%.

In addition to gusty winds, the storm will produce rainfall totals today of two to four inches across portions of the Bahamas that are still cleaning up from Hurricane Dorian's devastation. Pockets of six-inch totals are possible. Then, the storm will probably move along or over the east coast of Florida most of Saturday and Sunday, dropping two to four inches of rain on the U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina. This will be beneficial for parts of the region that are suffering from various levels of drought, but it may also lead to flash flooding and roadblocks.

Tropical storm conditions – sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph – should arrive in portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Florida Peninsula from Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler-Volusia County line by Saturday or Saturday night. The NHC does not expect PTC 9 to produce dangerous/life-threatening storm surge.

Beyond the weekend, it now looks like the storm will move out to sea instead of skirting the Outer Banks of North Carolina followed by a Mid-Atlantic landfall as was depicted in some of  yesterday's forecast models. However, tropical systems are always developing situations and outlooks can change. Look for forecast updates on the FreightWaves website and social media accounts in the coming days.

Other weather to watch

SONAR Critical Events: Friday, Sept. 13, 11 a.m. EDT.

There won't be very much disruptive weather this afternoon or tonight across the continental U.S. Look for areas of scattered rain and thunderstorms in portions of each region of the country except for the West. Particular trouble spots may be in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, where severe storms could pop up. Large hail, very gusty winds, isolated tornadoes and localized flash flooding may delay drivers from Indianapolis and Columbus to Cleveland and Detroit, affecting major routes such as I-55, I-65, I-75 and I-71. Storms may also produce flash flooding along the I-10 corridor from Tucson, Arizona, to Las Cruces, New Mexico and El Paso, Texas, as well as in a few spots in the southern Appalachians.

On Sunday, after the passage of a cold front, extremely low afternoon humidity and strong winds will make conditions prime for wildfires to spark and spread quickly across the Great Basin. If this happens, smoke may become thick enough in some areas to reduce visibility on sections of I-15 and I-80 in Nevada late in the weekend into next week.

Have a great day, a wonderful weekend, and be careful out there!

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