Weighing Zika's Global-Spread Risks Ahead Of Brazil Olympics

As the Brazil Olympics creeps around the corner, researchers are struggling to figure how much of a risk the Games might pose in spreading the Zika virus around the world.

The Games

As many as 200,000 Americans are expected to travel to Rio de Janeiro for the Olympics in August, a New York Times report said.

"When they return to the Northern Hemisphere and its summer heat, far more mosquitoes will be around to potentially transmit the virus in the United States," the report said.

Brazilian researchers believe that Zika came to Brazil during another major sporting event, the 2014 World Cup, which saw hundreds of thousands of global visitors. "Virus trackers here say that the strain raging in Brazil probably came from Polynesia, where an outbreak was rattling small islands around the Pacific," according to the Times.

Related Link: Americans Don't Really Understand The Zika Virus

The report cited as many as 1.5 million people have contracted the virus in Brazil since 2014, and authorities are now investigating thousands of reported cases of babies being born with tale-tell signs of the virus.

The virus has now spread to over 20 Western Hemisphere nations and territories, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Will Travel Be Advised Against?

However, the WHO is unlikely to issue a warning on travel to Brazil.

"I would think that would be very, very unlikely," Dr. Bruce Aylward, an assistant director general at the WHO told the Times.

Words Of Warning Persist

Meanwhile, the report said American officials have stated there was little likelihood of a Zika outbreak in the United States, thanks to the country's long history of mosquito-control efforts.

However, "[T]he virus can be carried in a person's blood to a new country, then passed to others by mosquito bites, researchers are trying to determine whether a big global event like the Olympics could add to the global transmission of the disease."

The Times, citing Moritz Kraemer, a scholar at Oxford University, said, "Using worldwide temperature profiles and air travel routes, Kraemer and other researchers found that more than 60 percent of the population of the United States lives in areas where Zika can be transmitted during the Northern Hemisphere's summer, when the Games will be held."

"A much smaller number, about 23 million people, live in parts of the United States where Zika can be transmitted year-round, like Florida and Texas, the researchers found."

Although Olympics officials emphasize that winter in Rio could limit the spread of the virus, Brazilian virologists contend "mosquitoes can still easily transmit viruses in Rio and other tropical cities year-round."

Final Thoughts

In addition to Zika fears, "Sailors have complained angrily about competing in the city's sewage-infested bay.

"While ticket sales had already been disappointing organizers, concerns are growing that travelers from the United States and other countries could cancel plans to visit because of Zika," the report said.