Morgan Stanley Releases Google Data and Estimates

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In a note released Tuesday Morgan Stanley provided the following data/estimates for Google
GOOG
.
  • Consensus 1Q 2014 net revenue / EBITDA: +22 percent (ex-Motorola) Y/Y and 21 percent Y/Y
  • Morgan Stanley 1Q 2014 net revenue / EBITDA: $12.5b / $6.2b on growth of 26 percent (ex-Motorola, Currency loaded) / 21 percent Y/Y. (Morgan Stanley models Motorola as discontinued operations.)
  • U.S. search spending grew 16 percent Y/Y on average
  • Research indicates world wide search spending growth in the mid-20s
  • 1Q impression growth modeled at +30 percent Y/Y
  • Estimated 9 percent decline in 1Q CPC
  • 2014 estimated EPS $27.27 / net revenue $53,623 mm
  • 2015 estimated EPS $33.65 / net revenue $62,628 mm
Morgan Stanley currently rate Google as Overweight and has a $645.00 price target.
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