Market Overview

USD / THB – Bearish Momentum Accelerates

Daily Chart

http://forexblog.oanda.com/mserve/USDTHB_160113D1.PNG

Bearish momentum appears to be accelerating with past few candle bodies forming fully out of the bottom band. Baht is also on its way to record a sequence of 10 consecutive days gains, which is the 1st since 2008 (and that is after a long series of gains, unlike current setup which is a continuation of a bear trend). Usually, such an extreme scenario would lead to a pullback eventually, but the problem with such a prediction is that we will not be able to predict precisely when this is going to happen. We could possibly guess intelligently, e.g. look out for potential slowing of bearish momentum which can be inferred by candles getting back into the bollinger band. Word of caution though, buying on pullbacks during an exceptional bear trend is highly risky. The very nature of an extreme scenario is that it is not the norm, hence do not be surprised if it doesn't behave as predicted.

Weekly Chart

http://forexblog.oanda.com/mserve/USDTHB_160113W1.PNG

Weekly chart shows that price has broken the 76.4% Fib Retracement, but expect some support to be found along the swing low around 29.65 (which is actually closer to 78.6% Fib retracement). Ultimate target for bears would be the 100% retracement back to  29.45. A push back above 30.0 does not necessary negate current bear trend, but above the 61.8% (30.4 level) may swing sentiment back to the bullish front for a move back higher.

 

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