Market Overview

Monday Market Uncertainty – Waiting to See Who Runs America

Today doesn't matter.

Tomorrow won't matter either.  Nothing will matter much, trading-wise, until we know what direction the US will be taking for the next 4 years.  Not only do we not usually get such a stark contrast in political viewpoints to vote for but also this is such a critical (and precarious) time for our economy so it's not all that surprising that we've had some wild gyrations leading up to this event.

However, not that for all these ups and downs, we still haven't failed the September lows – other than the AppleDaq while the NYSE, our broadest index, has been making some good progress, matching the S&P and Russell to hold roughly 2.5% above the Must Hold line while the Dow and Nasdaq are below theirs but holding their 200 dmas – for now.

Notice how the indexes ran back to our bounce levels but were soundly rejected there on Friday, where I warned Members in our Morning Alert

Let's keep those strong bounce lines in mind – we got 3 of 5 but not impressive until 5 of 5 as the goals were not very high-bar:  

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  • Dow  -  13,170 (weak), 13,300 (strong) – now 13,267
  • S&P  -  1,418, (weak), 1,431 (strong) – now 1,433
  • Nas   –  3,010 (weak), 3,050 (strong) – now 3,026
  • NYSE – 8,220 (weak), 8,280 (strong) – now 8,329
  • RUT   –    818 (weak), 826 (strong – now 830

That's where we were at 9:48 Friday morning but it was downhill all day from there and we ended up failing all of our weak bounce levels except fr the NYSE, which is barely over at 8,235.  In the bigger picture, we need to hold those Must Hold lines on the S&P (1,360), NYSE (8,000) and Russell (800) with the Russell closest to failure at 814.  Just like we needed all 5 indexes to bounce to get bullish – we need all 5 indexes to fail to get bearish – otherwise, we're simply playing a fairly narrow 5% range while we wait for the market to decide which way to go.

 

 

 

 

 

IN PROGRESS


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