Is Romney Closer to Losing to Obama in November?
A good stock market in 2012 may no longer depend on Rick Santorum's win in yesterday's Michigan Primary. Mitt Romney, the on and off again leading republican, avoided the embarrassment of losing in his birth state, in addition to pulling off a comfortable win in Arizona, the other primary yesterday.
But if we are to accept the premise that an ultimate Obama reelection and the certainty the continuation in government may yield, then we may yet see a good stock market materialize even with Romney at the Republican helm in November.
Why? Because the republicans are shredding each other apart. Despite providing arguably the strongest option republicans can present against the sitting president in November, Romney has not had much opportunity to wear in his leading shoes without getting attacked by camps in his own party.
At first it was his wealth, as if it is somehow wrong for the American people to be led by someone that obviously is not a stranger to success, and a proven leader that gets to make the tough, but ultimately profitable choices.
Then came Romneycare, the maligned healthcare bill Republicans credit with having inspired the even bigger devil, Obamacare. Despite Romney's defense of his bill being a state matter--and Republicans are all for states' rights--that argument has fallen on deaf Republican ears.
And of course, there is Romney's own, somewhat wooden personality. He cannot help coming off as, in Jon Stewart's words, 'a guy who would like you to think of him as a jean-wearing relaxed guy, but who you know is wearing dress slacks underneath'. Intended sentimentality such as "The trees are just the right height here [in Michigan]" not only offer absolutely no warmth to his perception, but make him come off as even more awkwardly scripted. To top this off, his effort at forging a connection with the everyday person by offering that his wife drives "a couple of Cadillacs" and that he has several good friends who own NASCAR teams, well, those come off as downright poor judgement.
Of course, the recent wavering in his thus-far steadfast "discipline" in core message management is starting to show potential chinks in his armor. Critics point out an abrupt about-face in the latest version of his economic plan, which is said to differ markedly from his original one.
Finally, an Obama-Romney face-off comes amid developments that heavily favor the incumbent. At a time when the US automotive industry is going through a renaissance, Obama has already gotten more vocal stressing the now-wrong opposition of the auto bailouts. Not to mention that Mr. Obama will likely have macroeconomic numbers on his side, most notably a sharply-declining headline unemployment number. Things like this are expected to resonate deeply with the 99 percent. When the president actually needs just 50.1 percent to get his message, that, indeed, does not bode well for Romney.
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