Consumer Confidence Rises in February

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is an indicator intended to measure consumer confidence in the United States, which is classified as the level of optimism for the general economic condition of the United States. This Index is expressed through consumer's activities of savings and spending. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 70.8 in February, higher than the general analysts' estimate of 63.0. This is essentially bullish for the outlook of the US economy, as the consumer makes up two-thirds of GDP. US equity markets spiked higher on heavy volume, after the release. According to the Conference Board's report, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in January, increased in February. The Index now stands at 70.8 up from 61.5 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 45.0 from 38.8. The Expectations Index rose to 88.0 from 76.7 in January. Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said, “Consumer Confidence, which had declined last month, posted a sizeable improvement in February. The Index is now close to levels last seen a year ago (Feb. 2011, 72.0.). Consumers are considerably less pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions than they were in January. And, despite further increases in gas prices, they are more optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy, job prospects, and their financial situation. ” Consumers' assessment of current conditions was more favorable in February. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased slightly to 13.3 percent from 13.2 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased to 31.2 percent from 38.3 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the labor market was also less pessimistic. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased to 6.6 percent from 6.2 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 38.7 percent from 43.3 percent.
ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that the Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the US economy, you might want to consider the following trades:
  • Long general retail companies like JC Pennny JCP because as consumers remain confident about their situations, the more likely people will spend their residual income.
  • Also, long Consumer Discretionary companies like Target TGT or the Consumer Discretionary ETF XLY
Bearish:
Traders who do not believe that the confidence index is a leading indicator for the general US economy, you may consider alternative positions:
  • Long Consumer Staple companies like Procter & Gamble PG and Colgate CL because even if less people are confident about economic outlook, they still need to buy staple products like shampoo and toothpaste.
  • Also, short big-ticket appliance makers like Whirlpool WHR if confidence is worse-than-expected.
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Comments
Loading...
Posted In: NewsEventsEcon #sEconomicsMarketsTrading Ideas
Benzinga simplifies the market for smarter investing

Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.

Join Now: Free!