If you model fails forecast a 3% GDP via ForexLive

Three months ago economists were forecasting +1.2% GDP. It was reported at +0.1% and eventually revised down to -2.9%.

All the magic is out of the GDP forecasting, the models failed badly last quarter and the only reason they didn't forecast something close to 3.0% was bad weather. It turns out it wasn't just bad weather that caused the miss, it was a bad economy that none of them saw coming.

It's poetic that the economist consensus is 3.0%, which is perfect because it's the kind of number economists fall back on when they don't know what's going on. To be fair, a few economists have stepped outside of the consensus. The low estimate is 2.3% and the high estimate is 4.6%.

Normally a 2 tick miss on this report is enough to get markets moving but after the past few reports, something close might bring a sign of relief. The market is definitely on edge.

posted via ForexLive