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United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) fell 5.7 percent as it cut its forecast, and a University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July fell to 83.9 from 84.1 a month earlier.
Equities: The SEP13 emini SP500 is unchanged from yesterday, trading at 1670. We believe this market could be due for a correction soon, possible trading down to the 1650 level, maybe even 1644. We believe the market could be at the top of its recent range, and may need more solid impetus to make a sustained move higher beyond the recent 1680 contract high. We look for a potential small move higher to the mid 1670′s, then we would not be surprised to see a correction downwards approaching 1650.
Bonds: The SEP13 30yr bond is up 10 ticks to 134’17. This market is above our key support level of 133’17, and we would not be surprised to see this market head higher, especially if the stock market corrects downward over the next couple of weeks. The 30yr bonds could indeed head higher to the monthly high in the high 136′s. Going forward in the medium term, we expect the bond market to be very dependent on the jobs and inflation data.
Currencies: The Aussie dollar has had a lot of trouble sustaining recent rallies off of the 90 level. Today, it is down 107 ticks to 90.27. 90.25 is our key pivot level. If the Aussie is bearish next week, we look for our next target of 89.05 to be hit. The US dollar index has not made new lows since the gap down open recently. We look for the US dollar to at some point make another move higher, but for now will likely wait and see what the incoming economic data indicate, as the Fed is very focused on the employment numbers. The British Pound had a massive short covering rally recently and is now at 151.08. We would not be surprised to see the Pound head back down below 1.50.
Commodities: Crude oil is up $.45 today to $105.37, gold is almost at unchanged levels to $1280, and the corn and soybeans markets are down today, with AUG13 soybeans down $.24 to $14.48. We believe gold could have a short term floor at $1225, and that the corn and beans markets seem to have a bearish tone to them now. AUG13RBOB gasoline has been on a tear recently, and today is up $.1 to $3.12. We would not be surprised to see crude oil consolidate and then potentially make another run higher to the $110 level. We have key support levels in crude at $103.85 and $103.00.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SPECULATIVE, INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS, AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
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Lido Isle Advisors is an elite provider of futures and options brokerage. The leadership of Lido Isle Advisors has been featured on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and referenced in leading publications such as Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Benzinga, Futuresmag, & Marketwatch for expertise on the futures and commodities markets.
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