Technical Forecast for Energy Futures
Forecast for 1st February 2013
March Brent Crude beat resistance at 115.13/25 area and shot straight to our next target at 115.91/116.02.
We have so far topped at exactly 115.91 but be ready to go with a break above 116.20 today for our next target of 117.02.
Support at 115.24/15 could hold any profit taking but below here look for 114.57/49
Gasoil fell back to 984.90/30 support which we predicted would hold the downside and we bottomed at
984.75. We have continued higher now, through 995.50 as we head towards our next target of 1001.50/1008
and tough resistance here in an overbought market may see us top out for the time being.
Look for support at 994.50/994.00 then 987 below which could hold any profit taking.
Nat Gas tested 3.258/240 support which we said may hold the downside and the low of the day was in fact
3.243. We then shot higher to hit our target of 3.374/386 over running slightly to 3.395 but this did cap the
market as predicted but if we manage a push through this resistance today we should close the gap towards
3.426 and top out here. Wee exit any longs and try shorts with a stop above 3.445.
There is a little support at 3.310 today which is holding so far but below here look for 3.258/240 which may
hold the downside once again. However a break targets the week’s low at 3.215/207. Below here we hit
strong support from the 5 month trend line at 3.185 which should see us bounce but a break could keep the
pressure on for 3.122 then 3.087.
WTI Crude Oil tried to break tough resistance at 97.75/95 but only reached 98.04 as we hit our 96.98/92 target as expected, to exit shorts and buy in to longs and the low of the day was in fact 96.84.
We need to exit longs any where near 97.75/95 resistance which is holding the bounce so far and should remain
a struggle. We can try shorts from here up to 98.25 with a stop above 98.35 for 98.58 and above here,
99.52 looks achievable.
Another test of 96.92/84 support looks likely with the outlook starting to weaken. We have not closed below
the 9 day moving average, today at 96.69, since mid December so stops needed on any longs below here as a
break risks a test of the next a support at 96.21/10 and a good buying opportunity. Keep stops tight as a break could then target 95.44.