Technical Forecast for Energy Futures

Forecast for 1st February 2013

 

March Brent Crude beat resistance at 115.13/25 area and shot straight to our next target at 115.91/116.02.

We have so far topped at exactly 115.91 but be ready to go with a break above 116.20 today for our next target of 117.02.

 

Support at 115.24/15 could hold any profit taking but below here look for 114.57/49

 

 

 

Gasoil fell back to 984.90/30 support which we predicted would hold the downside and we bottomed at

984.75. We have continued higher now, through 995.50 as we head towards our next target of 1001.50/1008

and tough resistance here in an overbought market may see us top out for the time being.

 

Look for support at 994.50/994.00 then 987 below which could hold any profit taking.

 

 

 

Nat Gas tested 3.258/240 support which we said may hold the downside and the low of the day was in fact

3.243. We then shot higher to hit our target of 3.374/386 over running slightly to 3.395 but this did cap the

market as predicted but if we manage a push through this resistance today we should close the gap towards

3.426 and top out here. Wee exit any longs and try shorts with a stop above 3.445.

 

There is a little support at 3.310 today which is holding so far but below here look for 3.258/240 which may

hold the downside once again. However a break targets the week’s low at 3.215/207. Below here we hit

strong support from the 5 month trend line at 3.185 which should see us bounce but a break could keep the

pressure on for 3.122 then 3.087.

 

 

 

WTI Crude Oil tried to break tough resistance at 97.75/95 but only reached 98.04 as we hit our 96.98/92 target as expected, to exit shorts and buy in to longs and the low of the day was in fact 96.84.

We need to exit longs any where near 97.75/95 resistance which is holding the bounce so far and should remain

a struggle. We can try shorts from here up to 98.25 with a stop above 98.35 for 98.58 and above here,

99.52 looks achievable.

 

Another test of 96.92/84 support looks likely with the outlook starting to weaken. We have not closed below

the 9 day moving average, today at 96.69, since mid December so stops needed on any longs below here as a

break risks a test of the next a support at 96.21/10 and a good buying opportunity. Keep stops tight as a break could then target 95.44.