- The BTC/USD turns up, leaving the low of 4k behind, but its falls can be resumed.
- The ETH/USD is moving upwards but the bulls are not very convinced.
- The XRP/USD retains the bullish scenario although risk continues.
The sell-off continues in the Crypto universe. The main cryptocurrencies set new minimums during the Asian session, except for the Ripple that already went through this procedure.
The well-known Economist Nouriel Roubini aka "Dr.Doom" kicked off the week by declaring that the main central banks’ initiative to launch their Blockchain based currency will compromise the future of the current cryptocurrencies.
The argument is sensible from the perspective of the current status quo, and I must admit that it is something that I valued a long time ago. Nevertheless, I dismissed it.
I question the survival of the status quo itself. If one of the arguments for a person to think about accumulating value by buying Bitcoins is the distrust of currencies backed by hyper-indebted systems, what can change when central banks change paper for bits?
If someday the current financial system collapses in the face of unpayable debt, what security does it provide that the instrument is digital, reliable and decentralized? If that day arrives, I will prefer to get my paycheck in Bitcoins than in a currency that is worth less every day while the central banks raise rates in despair.
In my opinion, the fact that Bitcoin or other Cryptocurrency is a store of value, secure, certifiable, fractional and isolated from the current system, has its risks but also undeniable advantages.
I do not deny all of Mr. Roubini's arguments, but I think he forgets to put all the elements on the balance.
Do you want to know more about my technical setup?
BTC/USD 240-Minutes.
The 240-Minute BTC/USD is currently trading at the $4.562 price level. It hit a fresh cycle low at $4,051.71 and reaffirms support at $4,400.
After these levels, and as I proposed yesterday, it turns upward in a normal reaction to the sharp falls of recent days.
Above the current price, the first resistance at $4,923 (price congestion resistance) is a necessary challenge to overcome to begin reassuring the market. The second resistance level at $5.342 (long-term channel baseline and EMA50) is the most crucial level. Exceeding it would bring the BTC/USD back to its previous scenario and could end the Sell-Off. The chart in the daily range does not support this possibility, but if fresh money appears with force, it could give a twist to the story.
Below the current price, the first support is at $4,400 (price congestion support). The second level to watch is at the recent lows of $4,051. If the BTC/USD breaks down, the Sell-Off will reactivate actively. The third level of support is at $3,919 (price congestion support). In the event, the BTC/USD loses this level, the last level of protection before the absolute disaster is at $3,272 (price congestion support).
The MACD at 240-Minutes shows a profile very close to the bullish cut. We must bear in mind that in the daily range the indicator is still very bearish, so with the slightest weakness of the bulls, the market can turn down with violence.
The DMI at 240-Minutes shows a drop in bear activity level which is matched by an increase in bull activity. The ADX remains at very high levels, so the speed of movement will remain present.
XRP/USD 240-Minutes.
The XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.455 price level. The first hour of the Asian session has left its mark on the Japanese candles at four hours, and the bullish reaction has taken it up to $0.464.
Above the current price, the XRP/USD has its first resistance at $0.48 (the trendline that governs the bullish movement from September lows, SMA200 and EMA50). It is a strong confluence that can complicate the upward movement. The second resistance is at $0.496 (SMA100). The third resistance level at $0.504 (price congestion resistance) is the critical level from which Ripple could start a new bullish surge that should take it above $1.20.
Below the current price, the XRP/USD has the first support in the zone between $0.442 and $0.447 (accelerated trend line from September lows and price congestion support). The second level of support is at $0.428 (price congestion support). The third level of XRP/USD support in the $0.413 to $0.409 range (price congestion support and relative minima).
The 240-Minute DMI shows the bears retreating and below the ADX as bulls overreact to bullish movement.
ETH/USD 240-Minutes.
The ETH/USD is currently trading at the $138 price level after hitting the trough of $125 twice. The double touch brings strength to the support level but in turn augurs pain if pierced in the next few days.
Above the current price, the first target is $155 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is between $167 and $169 (EMA50 and price congestion resistance). The third resistance level at $180 (price congestion resistance) is the level to conquer to reverse the damage caused by Sell-Off.
Below the current price, the XRP/USD has first support at $125 (relative minima and price congestion support). The second support at $94.7 (support for price congestion). Third level support at $81 (price congestion support). The loss of this last level would be disastrous for the long-term future of Ethereum.
The 240-Minute DMI shows the bears decreasing activity but still at very high levels. The bulls react timidly and do not seem convinced of the current movement.
The ADX continues at extremely high levels, which would bring speed to any trend, especially if it is bearish.
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