Copper Seasonal LONG Bias:
Here's an interesting statistic, BUY May Copper Jan14 exit March 3. In the last 40 years this has been the correct trade 80% , 32 winners 8 losers not bad. Is this the holy grail? No, just another tool in the tool chest. Consider all aspects of the market . Why does copper have bullish bias this time of year? China starts buying and the construction market starts to move her in the states. We also have a JPMorgan starting a Copper ETF back by 61,800 metric tons of actual metal. Which could be bullish as speculators get in. Right out of the gates to kick off the New Year this market was able to rally tremendously and since we have seen slight profit taking. Yesterday's earnings out of Alcoa are very encouraging to the bull camp sighting a strong outlook that includes recovering demand out of Asia. The market has consolidated above a 50% retracement over the last two sessions and now with Alcoa out of the way I expect bulls to find this market very attractive. A close above 3.714 will be a bullish signal. A close below 3.65-64 will be bearish but only a close below 3.62-3.615 will signal a reversal (.618 and 100 dma). Lastly, with the 50 and 200 day moving average at 3.586 and 3.579 we are seeing a bullish cross. What's my trade? Buy MAY 13 Copper at 3.690 Sell stop 3.630 Profit objective Sell 3.810. Risk $ 1,500 Reward $3,000. For you swing traders keep an eye on the 100-Day moving average 3.630. I will update trade live on twitter. Good luck and Good trading.
Resistance - 3.7154**, 3.83-3.85**, 4.00*
Support - 3.65-64*, 3.62-3.615***, 3.58**, 3.523*
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