Early Italian Media Polls Show Bersani Victory

The first media polls released showing initial results of the Italian election show that the centrist, pro-austerity party led by Pierre Luigi Bersani holds a slight lead over opposition parties.

According to Sky News Italia, the results are as follows:

• Bersani Coalition: 34.5 percent.


• Berlusconi Coalition 29 percent.


• Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement: 19 percent.


• Incumbent Mario Monti: very weak at 9.5 percent.

Markets seemed content with the early results despite the weakness in Monti's party as Beppe Grillo remained below the rumored 20 percent that he was thought to have been able to achieve. Sky News also reported that Bersani should be able to form a coalition without Monti based on these results, a huge win that could help Italy to escape the political deadlock that plagued Greece in May 2012.

Italian bond yields fell on the news, as the 10-year yield declined 17 basis points to 4.27 percent and Italian equities rose 3.1 percent led by financials. Most major banks rose more than 4 percent in Milan, including Banca Popolare, Mediobanca, and Unicredit.

The euro declined slightly on the news but still remained very strong against the dollar from the opening of the session, rising 89 pips or 0.66 percent to 1.3281. The EUR/GBP reached a 16-month high and traded 0.8803 on the news as the EUR/JPY rose 1.37 percent to 124.91.

Spanish bond yields fell in sympathy, with the the 10-year yield falling to 4.98 percent, below the dreaded 5 percent level. Spanish stocks also rallied in sympathy along with most other major European bourses.